How land use change transforms the landscape of vector-borne disease

土地利用变化如何改变病媒传播疾病的面貌

• 批准号: 2011147
• 负责人: Erin Mordecai
• 金额: $ 200万
• 依托单位: Stanford University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2011147&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: How; land; use; change; transforms

Human-induced ecological and social changes are transforming the landscape of infectious disease at a scale unprecedented in both speed and global reach. Anticipating and preventing disease expansions is a critical goal for humanity, which requires understanding fundamental ecological mechanisms that drive infectious disease transmission. Vector-borne diseases—those transmitted by biting arthropods like mosquitoes and ticks, including malaria, dengue, West Nile, Zika, and Lyme disease, are highly sensitive to environmental change because vectors live, breed, and bite hosts in the human-impacted environment. This research investigates the mechanisms by which ecological changes in land use, such as deforestation, agricultural intensification, and unplanned urbanization, affect vector-borne disease transmission. The project will build capacity in STEM research and education, focusing on promoting diversity and open access to science and including a geospatial data analysis tutorial. Results of the research will be incorporated into tools directly useful to policymakers, including informing the development of InVEST software, which describes how natural ecosystems support human health and welfare and is currently in use in over 180 countries.This project addresses three questions: (1) How does land use change affect the vector, host, and pathogen distributions and traits that drive disease transmission? (2) How important is land use change for vector-borne disease incidence observed at large scales in the field? (3) By what socioeconomic, behavioral, and ecological mechanisms does land use affect vector-borne disease transmission in the field? The hypothesis is that a dynamic gradient of land use intensification leads to a turnover in ecological suitability for transmission of different vector-borne diseases, resulting in succession from forest-based yellow fever and some forms of leishmaniasis, to malaria during early land conversion, to arboviruses transmitted by suburban and urban mosquitoes. The research will codify this hypothesis by developing trait-based epidemiological models of transmission for each of these focal diseases. Next, the research will test proposed relationships between environment and disease transmission using large-scale geospatial data on human disease, environment, and population in an econometrics statistical regression framework. Finally, the research will drill down into local transmission dynamics by surveying vector abundance, pathogen presence, human behavior, and socioeconomic conditions, combined with local-scale disease incidence data in situ in a field setting where land use is rapidly changing. Together, these approaches will identify and predict impacts of land use change on human disease.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

人类引起的生态和社会变化正在以前所未有的速度和全球范围改变传染病的格局，预测和预防疾病蔓延是人类的一个关键目标，这需要了解驱动传染病传播的基本生态机制。 -传播的疾病——那些通过蚊子和蜱虫等叮咬节肢动物传播的疾病，包括疟疾、登革热、西尼罗河病、寨卡病和莱姆病，对环境变化高度敏感，因为病媒在环境中生活、繁殖和叮咬宿主。该研究调查了土地利用的生态变化（例如森林砍伐、农业集约化和无计划的城市化）影响媒介传播疾病传播的机制，重点是促进 STEM 研究和教育的能力建设。多样性和科学的开放获取，包括地理空间数据分析教程，研究结果将被纳入对政策制定者直接有用的工具中，包括为 InVEST 软件的开发提供信息，该软件描述了自然生态系统如何支持人类健康和福利，目前正在开发中。在 180 多个国家使用。该项目解决了三个问题：(1) 土地利用变化如何影响媒介、宿主和病原体的分布以及驱动疾病传播的特征？(2) 土地利用变化对于媒介传播有多重要？ (3) 土地利用媒介传播疾病通过什么社会经济、行为和生态机制在实地传播？假设土地利用集约化的动态梯度导致土地利用集约化的更替？不同媒介传播的生态适宜性疾病，从森林黄热病和某些形式的利什曼病，到早期土地转化期间的疟疾，再到郊区和城市蚊子传播的虫媒病毒，该研究将通过为每种疾病开发基于特征的流行病学模型来整理这一假设。接下来，该研究将在计量经济学统计回归框架中使用有关人类疾病、环境和人口的大规模地理空间数据来测试环境与疾病传播之间的关系。通过调查媒介丰度、病原体存在、人类行为和社会经济条件，结合土地利用快速变化的实地环境中的当地疾病发病率数据，这些方法将识别和预测土地的影响。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Global Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases

全球变化和新出现的传染病

• DOI: 10.1146/annurev-resource-111820-024214
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Annual Review of Resource Economics
• 影响因子: 5.8
• 作者: Nova, Nicole;Athni, Tejas S.;Childs, Marissa L.;Mandle, Lisa;Mordecai, Erin A.
• 通讯作者: Mordecai, Erin A.

Response to Valle and Zorello Laporta: Clarifying the Use of Instrumental Variable Methods to Understand the Effects of Environmental Change on Infectious Disease Transmission

对 Valle 和 Zorello Laporta 的回应：阐明使用工具变量方法来了解环境变化对传染病传播的影响

• DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.21-0218
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
• 作者: MacDonald, Andrew J.;Mordecai, Erin A.
• 通讯作者: Mordecai, Erin A.

Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics

• DOI: 10.1101/2019.12.20.883363
• 发表时间: 2019-12
• 期刊: bioRxiv
• 作者: Nicole Nova;E. Deyle;Marta S. Shocket;Andrew J. MacDonald;M. Childs;M. Rypdal;G. Sugihara;E. Mordecai

The Importance of Including Non-Household Environments in Dengue Vector Control Activities.

• DOI: 10.3390/v15071550
• 发表时间: 2023-07-14
• 期刊: Viruses
• 作者: Peña-García VH;Mutuku FM;Ndenga BA;Mbakaya JO;Ndire SO;Agola GA;Mutuku PS;Malumbo SL;Ng'ang'a CM;Andrews JR;Mordecai EA;LaBeaud AD
• 通讯作者: LaBeaud AD

AeDES: a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for environmental suitability of Aedes-borne disease transmission

• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-69625-4
• 发表时间: 2020-07-28
• 期刊: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Munoz, A. G.;Chourio, X.;Thomson, M. C.
• 通讯作者: Thomson, M. C.