OPUS: CRS -- A Cross-Scale Synthesis in a Disturbance-Mediated System: Integrating Population, Community, and Metacommunity Perspectives

OPUS：CRS——干扰介导系统中的跨尺度综合：整合人口、社区和元社区视角

基本信息

批准号：
1950643
负责人：
Michael Willig
金额：
$ 29.3万
依托单位：
University of Connecticut
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2020-03-01 至 2024-02-29
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1950643&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
OPUS CRS Cross Scale Synthesis

项目摘要

We live in a time of rapid environmental change, challenging the ability of species to persist and of ecosystems to thrive. Thus, it is important to understand how living things respond to environmental disturbances. This project will use a long-term data set to determine how hurricanes and droughts in Puerto Rico have affected the lives of snails and slugs. These creatures may seem trivial but are not -- they play an important role in forests by breaking down dead plants and recycling nutrients. Yet, they are increasingly threatened by unusually strong hurricanes and harsh droughts. The main goal of this project is to predict how populations and groups of species change over time. How resistant or vulnerable are snails and slugs to environmental change, and why? What can we learn from them? In addition to new analyses of long-term data, the researcher will synthesize results of his past work, focusing on changes that take place at different scales and thatare somehow linked across those scales. The project will also help break down disciplinary barriers by offering courses that bring together teams of students and faculty from basic and applied environmental sciences, statistics and geography to learn together about tough environmental challenges.Synthetic research will produce theoretical and empirical discoveries that integrate perspectives on disturbance and succession, cross-scale interactions, and metacommunities. A monograph will focus on conceptual refinement and integration of theory on disturbance and succession with that on metacommunities. A second monograph will focus on long-term spatiotemporal patterns at the levels of populations, communities, and metacommunities. Population-level attributes include incidence (presence-absence) and abundance, whereas community-level attributes comprise species richness, evenness, dominance, diversity, and rarity. Each metric will be decomposed into spatial components based on multiplicative and additive models to understand how the hierarchical spatial structure responds to disturbances and subsequently changes during secondary succession. Metacommunity analyses will integrate process-based (i.e., patch dynamics, species sorting, mass effects, and neutrality) and pattern-based (i.e., coherence, range turnover, and range boundary clumping) approaches for understanding the ways in which metacommunities change over time in a hurricane-prone system. A hierarchical approach to variance decomposition will be used to quantify unique variation explained by environmental characteristics, spatial variation of unknown origin, and spatially structured environmental variation. Several emerging statistical approaches for understanding spatiotemporal variation will be explored, including (1) intervention analysis or segmented regression; (2) extended generalized linear mixed model frameworks; and (3) multivariate time series approaches and simultaneous inference procedures that accommodate Poisson or negative binomial error terms for rare or uncommon species.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

我们生活在迅速的环境变化时代，挑战物种持续和生态系统繁荣的能力。因此，重要的是要了解生物如何应对环境干扰。该项目将使用长期数据集来确定波多黎各的飓风和干旱如何影响蜗牛和sl的生活。这些生物似乎很容易，但并非如此 - 它们通过破坏死亡的植物和回收营养物质来在森林中发挥重要作用。然而，他们越来越受到异常强烈的飓风和严峻的干旱的威胁。该项目的主要目标是预测种群和物种群体如何随着时间而变化。蜗牛和sl虫对环境变化的抵抗力或脆弱性如何，为什么？我们能从他们那里学到什么？除了对长期数据的新分析外，研究人员还将综合他过去工作的结果，重点介绍在不同尺度上发生的变化，并以某种方式与这些量表相关联。该项目还将通过提供基础和应用环境科学，统计和地理学团队的课程来帮助打破纪律障碍，从而共同了解艰巨的环境挑战。共同研究将产生理论和经验发现，从而融合有关障碍和连续，跨阶段，跨阶段的互动，跨阶段，以及跨越的互动以及Metacommuntions和Metacacmuntions和Metacacmuntions和Metacacmuntions和Metacacmuntions和Metacacmuntions的观点。专着将重点介绍概念性的完善和整合理论与元社区有关的理论。第二篇专着将重点介绍人口，社区和元社区水平的长期时空模式。人口级的属性包括发病率（存在）和丰度，而社区级的属性包括物种丰富，均匀度，优势，多样性和稀有性。每个度量标准将基于乘法和加性模型分解为空间组件，以了解层次的空间结构如何响应干扰和随后在继任演替过程中变化。元社区分析将整合基于过程的（即斑块动态，物种分类，质量效应和中立性）和基于模式的（即相干性，范围更新和范围边界块）方法，以理解在飓风中易受飓风的系统中随时间变化的元社会方式。层次分解的分层方法将用于量化由环境特征，未知来源的空间变化以及空间结构结构化的环境变化所解释的独特变化。将探讨几种了解时空变异的新兴统计方法，包括（1）干预分析或分段回归；（2）扩展的广义线性混合模型框架；（3）多元时间序列方法和同时适应稀有或不常见物种的泊松或负二项式错误术语的推理程序。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的审查标准通过评估来通过评估来支持的。