Transport Dynamics of the Northeast Pacific In a Changing Climate

气候变化下东北太平洋的运输动态

• 批准号: 1948627
• 负责人: Emanuele Di Lorenzo
• 金额: $ 48.88万
• 依托单位: Georgia Tech Research Corporation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-03-15 至 2023-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1948627&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Transport; Dynamics; Northeast; Pacific; Changing

Over the last decades, the Northeast Pacific (NEP), has experienced dramatic changes in its climate with the occurrence of a sequence of record-breaking temperature extremes between 2013-2019, such as the multi-year 2013-15 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave, the strong 2015-16 El Niño, and more recently the ongoing 2019 Alaskan heatwave. The resulting changes in temperature and eddy-scale ocean transport dynamics (e.g. cross-shore, alongshore, upwelling) in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and California Current System (CCS) led to dramatic ecosystem impacts that include harmful algal blooms along the coasts, low primary productivity, massive die offs of mammals and birds. Despite advances in our understanding of the large-scale Pacific changes, it remains unclear how regional transport dynamics of the GOA and CCS are responding to the observed climate extremes and trends in decadal climate variability in the NEP, and what changes in transport statistics are expected under anthropogenic climate forcing. Key Questions: (Q1) How did the amplification of the regional climate variance in the Northeast Pacific over the last decades impact eddy-scale transport dynamics (e.g. alongshore, cross-shore, upwelling) in the California and Gulf of Alaska circulation systems? (Q2) What are the Pacific largescale drivers that control the regional ocean transport statistics during the recent temperature extremes (2013-2019), and are the changes in transport significant (e.g. an extreme) in the context of historical long-term variability (1950-2000)? (Q3) How are ecologically-relevant transport statistics in the Northeast Pacific expected to change under anthropogenic forcing (2050-2100), and are these changes consistent with what occurred during the recent extremes (2013-2019)? The goal of this research is to identify and estimate the response of ecologically-relevant eddyscale transport dynamics in the Northeast Pacific to (GOAL1) recent amplifications of large-scale climate forcing (e.g. extremes, trends, decadal variability), and (GOAL2) projected changes in anthropogenic climate change as inferred from large-ensemble of individual Earth System Models (ESMs) that allow to separate the internal vs forced variability. Two female Ph.D. students will be trained and mentored. The PI will share this research in his ongoing interdisciplinary research/leadership activities in the California-LTER, PICES, and US CLIVAR. The high-resolution regional climate ensemble archive generated in this study will be a unique asset to the marine research community in the Northeast Pacific. The PI will work with the CCE-LTER team to make the model output available for interdisciplinary studies and to develop a set of Linear Inverse Model tutorials to help marine ecosystem scientists apply this methodology to explore ecological dynamics.The approaches & TASKs of the investigation will include (T1) a 10-member ensemble of high-resolution regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model historical simulations of the Northeast Pacific (1950-2019) with a passive tracers transport module to downscale the impact of large-scale Pacific climate forcing on regional transport dynamics in the GOA and CCS, (T2) a set of Linear Inverse Models (LIMs) to identify and quantify the effects of large-scale drivers on ecologically-relevant regional transport statistics inferred from the passive tracers, (T3) the use of large ensemble simulations of individual ESMs (e.g. CESM, GFDL ESM2M) under the SSP5-8.5 or equivalent scenario as input to the LIM to investigate how anthropogenic forcing is projected to impact the targeted transport statistics in the context of internal climate variability. The recent increase in climate variance and ecosystem synchrony in the Northeast Pacific, together with the ecological and societal impacts of the temperatures extremes of the 2013-15 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave, the strong 2015-16 El Niño, 2019 Alaskan heatwave, raise concern and questions of the role of natural and anthropogenic forcing in the regional oceanography of the Northeast Pacific. Eddy-scale transport dynamics (e.g. alongshore, cross-shore, upwelling) have long been recognized as a key driver of marine ecosystem change, yet the response of these dynamics to a changing climate remains unclear. This work will provide understanding on how the recent trends in the climate variance of ecological drivers relates to long-term historical variability and to anthropogenic forcing.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在过去的几十年中，东北太平洋（NEP）在2013 - 2019年之间发生了一系列破纪录的温度极端，例如2013 - 15年度的2013 - 15年东北太平洋海洋热浪，强大的2015-16厄尔尼尼诺（ElNiño）以及最近的2019年Alaskan Alaskan Alaskan Alaskan Heatwave。在阿拉斯加湾（GOA）（果阿）和加利福尼亚当前系统（CCS）中，温度和涡流海洋运输动力学（例如跨岸，沿岸，上升流）的变化导致了巨大的生态系统影响，导致了巨大的生态系统影响，其中包括沿着科斯塔斯沿岸的有害​​阿尔加尔血液，低生产率，巨大的生产力，巨大的生产力，雄性雄性和雄性鸟类和鸟类。尽管我们对大规模太平洋变化的理解有所进步，但尚不清楚果阿和CC的区域运输动力学如何应对NEP中观察到的气候极端和气候变化的气候极端和趋势，以及在人为气候强迫下预期的运输统计数据的变化。关键问题：（Q1）在过去的几十年中，东北太平洋地区气候差异的扩增影响了加利福尼亚州和阿拉斯加循环系统的加利福尼亚和海湾的涡流运输动力学（例如沿海，跨岸，上升流）？ （Q2）在最近的温度极端温度（2013-2019）中控制区域海洋运输统计的太平洋大型驱动因素是什么，在历史长期变化（1950-2000）的背景下，运输的变化显着（例如极端）？ （Q3）东北太平洋地区与生态尚未相关的运输统计有望在人为强迫下发生变化（2050-2100），这些变化与最近极端（2013-2019）期间发生的变化一致吗？这项研究的目的是识别和估算东北太平洋地区与生态相关的埃迪斯大刻度运输动力学的反应（goal1）对大规模气候强迫的近期扩增（例如，极端，趋势，衰老变异性），（目标2）在人类流动性的气候变化中允许各个模型（ESMSS SYSS）分开的变化（ESMS）的变化（ESMS）的变化（ESMS）的变化（ESMSS）的变化（ESMSS）分开。两位女博士学生将接受培训和修补。 PI将在他正在进行的跨学科研究/领导力活动中分享这项研究，在加利福尼亚州，PICES和美国克里瓦尔。本研究中产生的高分辨率区域气候合奏档案将是东北太平洋海洋研究界的独特资产。 The PI will work with the CCE-LTER team to make the model output available for interdisciplinary studies and to develop a set of Linear Inverse Model tutorials to help marine ecosystem scientists apply this methodology to explore ecological dynamics.The approaches & TASKs of the investment will include (T1) a 10-member ensemble of high-resolution regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model historical simulations of the Northeast Pacific (1950-2019)通过被动示踪剂传输模块，以降低大规模太平洋气候强迫对果阿和CC中区域运输动力学的影响，（T2）一组线性逆模型（LIMS）识别和量化大规模驱动程序对自生态运输统计的大规模驱动程序对单个型号的范围（T3）的影响（T3）的使用。在SSP5-8.5或同等情景下，CESM，GFDL ESM2M）的投入，以调查如何预计人类学强迫如何影响目标运输统计数据在最新的气候可变性和生态系统的增长中，北部太平洋地区的生态和社交活动以及温度越强的北部强度，以及2013年的生态和社交影响。 2015-16厄尔尼诺现象，2019年阿拉斯加热浪，引起了人们对自然和人为强迫在东北太平洋地区海洋学中的作用的关注和问题。涡流级运输动力学（例如沿海，跨岸，上升流）长期以来一直被认为是海洋生态系统变化的关键驱动力，但是这些动力学对不断变化的气候的反应尚不清楚。这项工作将对生态驱动因素的最新趋势与长期历史变异性和人为强迫有关。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响标准来评估的。

项目成果

The Continuum of Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves and Their Relationship to the Tropical Pacific

东北太平洋海洋热浪的连续体及其与热带太平洋的关系

• DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090661
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Xu, Tongtong;Newman, Matthew;Capotondi, Antonietta;Di Lorenzo, Emanuele
• 通讯作者: Di Lorenzo, Emanuele