Collaborative Research: Understanding Evacuation Behavior for Rapid Onset Disasters such as Flash Floods and Tsunamis in the Cascadia Subduction Zone

合作研究：了解卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带山洪和海啸等快速发生的灾害的疏散行为

基本信息

批准号：
1826407
负责人：
Haizhong Wang
金额：
$ 32.59万
依托单位：
Oregon State University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2018-09-15 至 2022-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1826407&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Understanding Evacuation Behavior

项目摘要

This project advances the fundamental understanding of household responses to rapid onset disasters such as flash floods and near-field tsunamis in the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Specifically, this project will address two often-neglected fundamental issues in evacuation research. First, although there has been extensive research on evacuation rates and the factors that affect household evacuation decisions, there has been little research on evacuation logistics. In particular, recent research on evacuations from rapid onset disasters has revealed that few studies have addressed the timing of warning diffusion and household mobilization, let alone the predictors of these variables. This poses a significant impediment to transportation researchers who require accurate estimates of the time dependent rates at which evacuees enter the evacuation route system because time is critical to the likelihood of surviving tsunami waves or inland flooding. Second, there has been little research on evacuees' transportation mode choices (vehicular vs. pedestrian) from mountainous coasts where both modes are feasible. Transportation mode choice is closely related to households' choice of evacuation routes and destinations. These issues are addressed by conducting a behavioral expectations survey of a representative sample of residents in three communities on the Oregon coast. The behavioral expectations survey is supplemented by surveys of people who participate in tsunami evacuation drills. Data from these sources are integrated into an agent-based evacuation model. This project will develop a tsunami interactive multi-touch exhibit to transform hazard literacy education at the Hatfield Marine Science Center Cyber-Learning Laboratory. This scientific research contribution thus supports NSF's mission to promote the progress of science and to advance our national welfare with benefits by identifying critical needs for household and community evacuation planning in advance of rapid onset disasters such as tsunamis and flash floods.This project integrates the multiple disciplines of social science, hazard science, and engineering through an interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework to investigate household's response to rapid onset disasters such as tsunamis and flash floods. The research objective is to systematically compare experiential evacuation drills to prior research on people's responses to the earthquakes and tsunami threat in Christchurch, Tohoku, and American Samoa, complemented by data from a tsunami evacuation expectations survey on the Oregon coast. These data will underpin a validated interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework that advances the theoretical understanding and practical utilization of scientific findings regarding household response to imminent threats. Specifically, this project will achieve the following four objectives: (1) conduct systematic comparisons of experiential drills to actual events to uncover ways they differ; (2) identify and validate the critical decision-making factors that facilitate or inhibit the implementation of protective actions; (3) characterize the behavioral outcomes of tsunami vertical evacuation and unplanned infrastructure disruptions; and (4) establish an experiential cyberlearning platform to enhance tsunami literacy education. The results from this project will provide disaster planners and managers with a strong evidence-based framework to create effective evacuation strategies and evacuation route system mitigation plans. This project will also underpin improved understanding by STEM students, policy makers and planners, agency/industry professionals, and the general public, of tsunamis and measures that can lead to improved life safety and community resilience.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目增进了人们对卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带山洪和近场海啸等快速发生灾害的家庭反应的基本了解。具体来说，该项目将解决疏散研究中两个经常被忽视的基本问题。首先，尽管人们对疏散率和影响家庭疏散决策的因素进行了广泛的研究，但对疏散物流的研究却很少。特别是，最近关于快速发生的灾害疏散的研究表明，很少有研究涉及警报传播和家庭动员的时间，更不用说这些变量的预测因素了。这对交通研究人员造成了重大障碍，他们需要准确估计疏散人员进入疏散路线系统的时间相关率，因为时间对于海啸或内陆洪水幸存的可能性至关重要。其次，对于从山区海岸撤离人员的交通方式选择（车辆与步行）的研究很少，因为这两种交通方式都是可行的。交通方式的选择与家庭疏散路线和目的地的选择密切相关。这些问题是通过对俄勒冈州海岸三个社区的代表性居民样本进行行为期望调查来解决的。对参加海啸疏散演习的人员进行的调查是对行为期望调查的补充。来自这些来源的数据被集成到基于代理的疏散模型中。该项目将开发一个海啸交互式多点触控展览，以改变哈特菲尔德海洋科学中心网络学习实验室的危险素养教育。因此，这项科学研究贡献支持 NSF 的使命，即通过在海啸和山洪等快速发生的灾害发生之前确定家庭和社区疏散规划的关键需求，促进科学进步并以效益促进我们的国家福利。该项目整合了多个通过基于代理的跨学科建模框架，结合社会科学、灾害科学和工程学等学科，研究家庭对海啸和山洪等快速发生的灾害的反应。研究目的是系统地将体验式疏散演习与先前关于克赖斯特彻奇、东北和美属萨摩亚人们对地震和海啸威胁的反应的研究进行比较，并辅以俄勒冈州海岸海啸疏散预期调查的数据。这些数据将支撑经过验证的跨学科基于主体的建模框架，该框架可促进有关家庭应对迫在眉睫威胁的科学发现的理论理解和实际利用。具体来说，该项目将实现以下四个目标：（1）将体验式演练与实际赛事进行系统比较，找出不同之处； (2) 识别并验证促进或抑制保护行动实施的关键决策因素； (3) 描述海啸垂直疏散和计划外基础设施破坏的行为结果； (4) 建立体验式网络学习平台，加强海啸扫盲教育。该项目的结果将为灾害规划者和管理者提供强有力的循证框架，以制定有效的疏散策略和疏散路线系统缓解计划。该项目还将加强 STEM 学生、政策制定者和规划者、机构/行业专业人士以及公众对海啸以及可改善生命安全和社区复原力的措施的理解。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并已通过使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，认为值得支持。