Collaborative Research: Using Precursor Information to Update Probabilistic Hazard Maps

协作研究：使用前体信息更新概率危险图

• 批准号: 1821311
• 负责人: Abani Patra
• 金额: $ 20万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Buffalo
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-01 至 2022-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1821311&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Using; Precursor; Information

In many natural hazard scenarios, precursory information becomes available before an event. Responding to an impending hazard means that time is limited; analysis and decision-making must proceed on an accelerated timetable. This project develops methodology for responding to signals from a variety of data sources that have been interpreted as suggesting that a volcanic eruption is threatened. Prior research has attempted to elucidate how physical processes predict an eruption. For example, seismic signals, gas emissions, and tilt data have all been implicated as volcanic eruption precursors. But none of these signals have been shown to make robust predictions. This project undertakes a different approach, developing methods to integrate precursor data, decide on the likely evolution of eruption scenarios, and rapidly build simulation studies and statistical emulators, to provide timely and actionable information on which to decide a course of action. The new methodology will provide tools to rapidly construct probability-based hazard forecast maps for cascading geophysical events.The prediction and management of extreme events, from volcanic eruptions to floods to stock market crashes, requires a careful analysis of the hazard event, its inputs, and its consequences. Data of different kinds, and of differing fidelity, must be incorporated into a detailed analysis of the impending hazard. The investigators will build upon their past research characterizing volcanic hazards. This work provides long-term hazard analysis and provides a bridge from incoming precursory information, such as seismic signals and gas emission, to eruption impacts, such as likely paths of mass flows. The investigators aim to develop methodology to update input distributions for physical simulations and to integrate outcomes into new adaptive designs for surrogate construction, rapid evaluations of limited simulations, and massive parallel emulation. The project will also investigate a methodology based on observed power-law relationships between precursory information and their growth to estimate the time to eruption and other outcomes under uncertain data.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在许多自然灾害场景中，在事件发生之前就可以获得前兆信息。应对迫在眉睫的危险意味着时间有限；分析和决策必须加速进行。该项目开发了一种方法来响应来自各种数据源的信号，这些数据源被解释为暗示火山喷发受到威胁。先前的研究试图阐明物理过程如何预测火山喷发。例如，地震信号、气体排放和倾斜数据都被认为是火山喷发的前兆。但这些信号都没有被证明能够做出可靠的预测。该项目采用了不同的方法，开发方法来整合前兆数据，决定喷发场景的可能演变，并快速建立模拟研究和统计模拟器，以提供及时且可操作的信息来决定行动方案。新方法将提供工具来快速构建基于概率的级联地球物理事件灾害预测图。从火山爆发到洪水再到股市崩盘等极端事件的预测和管理，需要仔细分析灾害事件、其输入、及其后果。必须将不同类型和不同保真度的数据纳入对即将发生的危险的详细分析中。研究人员将以他们过去的火山灾害研究为基础。这项工作提供了长期的灾害分析，并为从传入的前兆信息（例如地震信号和气体排放）到喷发影响（例如物质流的可能路径）提供了一座桥梁。研究人员的目标是开发方法来更新物理模拟的输入分布，并将结果整合到新的自适应设计中，以进行替代构建、有限模拟的快速评估和大规模并行仿真。该项目还将研究一种基于观察到的前兆信息与其增长之间的幂律关系的方法，以估计不确定数据下的喷发时间和其他结果。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。

项目成果

Prediction of optical band gap of β-(Al x Ga 1-x ) 2 O 3 using material informatics

使用材料信息学预测 β-(Al x Ga 1-x ) 2 O 3 的光学带隙

• DOI: 10.1016/j.md.2018.06.001
• 发表时间: 2018-03
• 期刊: Materials Discovery
• 作者: Swinnich, Edward;Dave, Yash Jayeshbhai;Pitman, E. Bruce;Broderick, Scott;Mazumder, Baishakhi;Seo, Jung
• 通讯作者: Seo, Jung

Comparative Analysis of the Structures and Outcomes of Geophysical Flow Models and Modeling Assumptions Using Uncertainty Quantification

使用不确定性量化对地球物理流模型和建模假设的结构和结果进行比较分析

• DOI: 10.3389/feart.2020.00275
• 发表时间: 2020-07
• 期刊: Frontiers in Earth Science
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Patra, Abani;Bevilacqua, Andrea;Akhavan;Pitman, E. Bruce;Bursik, Marcus;Hyman, David
• 通讯作者: Hyman, David

A new method to identify the source vent location of tephra fall deposits: development, testing, and application to key Quaternary eruptions of Western North America

一种识别火山灰沉积物源喷口位置的新方法：开发、测试和在北美西部第四纪关键喷发中的应用

• DOI: 10.1007/s00445-019-1310-0
• 发表时间: 2019-09
• 期刊: Bulletin of Volcanology
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Yang, Qingyuan;Bursik, Marcus;Pitman, E. Bruce
• 通讯作者: Pitman, E. Bruce

Probabilistic Enhancement of the Failure Forecast Method Using a Stochastic Differential Equation and Application to Volcanic Eruption Forecasts

使用随机微分方程增强故障预测方法的概率及其在火山喷发预测中的应用

• DOI: 10.3389/feart.2019.00135
• 发表时间: 2019-07
• 期刊: Frontiers in Earth Science
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Bevilacqua, Andrea;Pitman, Eric Bruce;Patra, Abani;Neri, Augusto;Bursik, Marcus;Voight, Barry
• 通讯作者: Voight, Barry

Pressure-driven gas ow in viscously deformable porous media: application to lava domes

粘性可变形多孔介质中的压力驱动气体流动：在熔岩穹顶中的应用

• DOI: 10.1017/jfm2019-211
• 发表时间: 2019-06
• 期刊: Journal of fluid mechanics
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Hyman, D.;Bursik, M.;Pitman, E.B
• 通讯作者: Pitman, E.B