Collaborative Research: Reevaluating precipitation extremes and flood hazard in the wake of Hurricane Harvey

合作研究：重新评估飓风哈维后的极端降水和洪水灾害

基本信息

批准号：
1833200
负责人：
Samuel Munoz
金额：
$ 19.99万
依托单位：
Northeastern University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2018-06-15 至 2022-05-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1833200&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Reevaluating precipitation extremes

项目摘要

In August 2017, Hurricane Harvey produced catastrophic flooding across southeast Texas that caused over $100 billion in damages. Rainfall totals and river flows associated with Hurricane Harvey shattered records across southeast Texas, but these records span only the last ~100 years. How unusual was the flooding generated by Hurricane Harvey, and what is the likelihood of such an event occurring again? The brevity of instrumental hydrologic records currently limits our ability to precisely answer this critical question. This project will improve risk assessments for extreme precipitation and flooding in southeast Texas by extending the length of the hydrologic record back in time using geological evidence of flooding with a hydrologic model. These data will allow us to better understand the probability of an event like Hurricane Harvey occurring again, and evaluate how variations in climate and human activities affect flood risk in southeast Texas. This research will improve assessments of the risk posed by flooding, a hazard that has recent affected millions of people living in the Houston metropolitan area. The project will engage undergraduate and graduate students in research, and its findings will be disseminated to the public and decision-makers through the Center for Texas Beaches and Shores.Frequency analyses based on a century of hydrological measurements estimate that the recurrence intervals of Hurricane Harvey?s precipitation and discharge maxima approach 1,000 years (i.e., 0.1% exceedance probability), but these estimates are highly uncertain with 95% confidence intervals that span multiple orders of magnitude. The goal of this project is to reevaluate flood hazard in the Houston metropolitan area by extending the temporal range of analysis from ~100 years to ~1,000 years. To do this, we will use established techniques in paleoflood hydrology to reconstruct discharge maxima of the two rivers in southeast Texas over the last millennium, and integrate these data with a hydrologic model to evaluate the roles of natural and anthropogenic forces on regional flood hazard. These data will allow us to (a) improve assessments of the exceedance probability of Hurricane Harvey and other recent catastrophic floods in the Houston metropolitan region, (b) test for the presence of non-stationarities in flood hazard, and (c) identify the roles of climate variability and land use and land cover change in generating discharge extremes.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

2017年8月，哈维飓风在德克萨斯州东南部造成了灾难性的洪水，造成了超过1000亿美元的损失。与飓风哈维（Harvey）在德克萨斯州东南部破碎的记录相关的降雨量和河流流量，但这些记录仅跨越了最后一个〜100年。哈维飓风造成的洪水有多不寻常，这种事件再次发生的可能性是什么？工具水文记录的简洁性目前限制了我们精确回答这个关键问题的能力。该项目将通过使用水文模型泛滥的地质证据来延长水文记录的长度，从而改善得克萨斯州东南部的极端降水和洪水的风险评估。这些数据将使我们能够更好地理解诸如Harvey飓风之类的事件的可能性，并评估气候和人类活动的变化如何影响德克萨斯州东南部的洪水风险。这项研究将改善对洪水造成的风险的评估，洪水造成的危害最近影响了居住在休斯顿大都市地区的数百万人。该项目将吸引本科生和研究生参与研究，其发现将通过德克萨斯州海滩和海岸中心分解给公众和决策者。基于一个世纪的水文测量结果进行频率分析，估计飓风的复发间隔，飓风的降水和最大程度的估计性为1000％（即高度超过9％）。这涵盖了多个数量级。该项目的目的是通过将分析的时间分析范围从约100年扩展到约1000年来重新评估休斯顿大都会地区的洪水危害。为此，我们将在上一个千年中使用古流经水文学中建立的技术来重建得克萨斯州东南部两条河流的最大值，并将这些数据与水文模型整合在一起，以评估自然和人为力量对区域洪水危害的作用。这些数据将使我们能够（a）提高对休斯顿大都市地区飓风哈维的超出可能性的评估，以及（b）测试洪水危害中存在非平稳性的测试；基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响评论标准。