CNH-L: Revealing the Hidden Ecoclimate Teleconnections Between Forest and Agriculture in the U.S. Enables Novel Governance Strategies for a Telecoupled World

CNH-L：揭示美国森林和农业之间隐藏的生态气候远程联系，为远程耦合世界提供新颖的治理策略

• 批准号: 1824796
• 负责人: Aaron Lien
• 金额: $ 145万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1824796&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Revealing; Hidden; Ecoclimate; Teleconnections

This award will provide decision-makers with the knowledge and tools to better understand and respond to the hidden connections, called teleconnections, between forest conditions in one part of the US and agricultural production elsewhere. Recent scientific studies show that changes in forests-such as the widespread die-off in the West related to drought, beetle infestations, and wildfires-affect patterns of temperature and precipitation, which in turn "connect" through atmospheric processes to agricultural production in other parts of the country. This research will determine the economic impacts of forest die-off across the US on agricultural yields and crop values and will develop a blueprint to manage the challenges of such outcomes. This award will provide decision-makers with the knowledge and tools to better manage natural-human systems in a telecoupled world.A grand challenge of the coming century is not only to understand the ecological connections between natural and human systems, but also to understand how and when changing ecological conditions can prompt effective governance feedback responses. This research contributes to the body of literature on telecoupled natural-human systems, focusing on the hidden linkages between forests and agriculture in the US. The long-term goal of the award is to provide decision-makers with the knowledge and tools to better manage natural-human systems in a telecoupled world. Changes in vegetation in one location can drive changes in temperature, precipitation, and, subsequently, gross primary productivity in distant locations-a process referred to as an ecoclimate teleconnection. For example, in recent years, California has seen a historic 129 million trees killed across 8.9 million acres, a result of drought, beetle infestation, and wildfire. Via ecoclimatic teleconnections, such large-scale forest die-off may result in telecoupled changes in human systems in distant locations, such as in agricultural yields in the Midwest and related market changes. Specifically, this research will: (1) determine the ecoclimate teleconnections of forest die-off across the US; (2) quantify economic impacts of such changes on US agricultural yield and crop values in key bioclimatic regions; (3) determine the political, institutional, and behavioral factors that may influence decision-makers' ability to respond adaptively to telecoupled forest-agricultural systems; and (4) convene an interactive workshop with decision-makers to present the research findings and to co-produce a blueprint for addressing the governance challenges of such telecoupling. The award will utilize the National Ecological Observatory Network to evaluate the effects of teleconnections between forests and agriculture.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项将为决策者提供知识和工具，以更好地理解和响应美国在美国一部分的森林状况与其他地方的农业生产之间的隐藏联系（称为远程连接）。最近的科学研究表明，森林的变化如西方的广泛死亡，与干旱，甲虫的侵扰以及野火相关的温度和降水模式，而温度和降水的模式则通过大气过程与该国其他地区的农业生产“联系”。这项研究将确定整个美国森林死亡对农业产量和作物价值的影响，并将开发出一种蓝图来管理这种结果的挑战。该奖项将为决策者提供在电信世界中更好地管理天然人类系统的知识和工具。未来世纪的巨大挑战不仅是了解自然和人类系统之间的生态联系，而且还了解改变生态条件时以及如何以及在改变生态条件时如何以及如何提示有效的治理反馈反应。这项研究有助于有关远程耦合天然人类系统的文献，重点关注美国森林与农业之间的隐藏联系。该奖项的长期目标是为决策者提供知识和工具，以更好地管理电信世界中的天然人类系统。一个位置的植被的变化可以驱动温度，降水量的变化，随后在遥远的位置进行了总生产力 - 一种称为生态气候远程连接的过程。例如，近年来，加利福尼亚州看到了一座历史悠久的1.29亿棵树，占890万英亩，这是干旱，甲虫侵扰和野火的结果。通过生态气候远程连接，这种大规模的森林死亡可能会导致遥远位置的人类系统的远程变化，例如中西部和相关市场变化的农业产量。具体而言，这项研究将：（1）确定整个美国森林死亡的生态气候远程连接； （2）量化这种变化对主要生物气候地区的美国农业产量和作物价值的经济影响； （3）确定可能影响决策者对远程造成的森林农业系统反应能力的政治，制度和行为因素； （4）与决策者召集了一个互动研讨会，以介绍研究结果，并共同生产蓝图，以应对这种远程耦合的治理挑战。该奖项将利用国家生态观测网络来评估森林与农业之间远程连接的影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的评估审查标准来通过评估来获得支持的。

项目成果

Diverse stakeholders and their interests matter to the U.S. Forest Service: a network of action situations analysis of how stakeholders affect forest plan outcomes.

不同的利益相关者及其利益对美国林务局很重要：对利益相关者如何影响森林计划结果的行动情境网络进行分析。

• DOI: 10.1007/s11625-022-01173-4
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Sustainability science
• 影响因子: 6
• 作者: Baldwin, E;McLaughlin, D. M.;Jasso, V.;Woods, D.;Breshears, D. D.;López-Hoffman, L.;Soto, J. R.;Swann A.;Lien, A.
• 通讯作者: Lien, A.

Macrosystems as metacoupled human and natural systems

• DOI: 10.1002/fee.2289
• 发表时间: 2021-02
• 期刊: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
• 影响因子: 10.3
• 作者: Flavia Tromboni;Jianguo Liu;Emanuele Ziaco;D. Breshears;Kim‐Ly Thompson;W. Dodds;K. Dahlin;E. LaRue;J. Thorp;A. Viña;M. Laguë;Alain Maasri;Hongbo Yang;S. Chandra;S. Fei

Underappreciated plant vulnerabilities to heat waves

• DOI: 10.1111/nph.17348
• 发表时间: 2021-04-23
• 期刊: NEW PHYTOLOGIST
• 影响因子: 9.4
• 作者: Breshears, David D.;Fontaine, Joseph B.;Hardy, Giles E. St J.
• 通讯作者: Hardy, Giles E. St J.

Climate‐driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species’ distributions

气候驱动，但动态且复杂？

• DOI: 10.1111/ele.13902
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Ecology Letters
• 影响因子: 8.8
• 作者: Schultz, Emily L.;Hülsmann, Lisa;Pillet, Michiel D.;Hartig, Florian;Breshears, David D.;Record, Sydne;Shaw, John D.;DeRose, R. Justin;Zuidema, Pieter A.;Evans, Margaret E. K.
• 通讯作者: Evans, Margaret E. K.

Mechanisms of a coniferous woodland persistence under drought and heat

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab0921
• 发表时间: 2019-04-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: McDowell, Nate G.;Grossiord, Charlotte;Xu, Chonggang
• 通讯作者: Xu, Chonggang