Collaborative Proposal: RAPID: How do extreme flooding events impact migratory species?

合作提案：RAPID：极端洪水事件如何影响迁徙物种？

基本信息

批准号：
1818934
负责人：
Leslie Ries
金额：
$ 5.5万
依托单位：
Georgetown University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2018-01-15 至 2019-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1818934&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Proposal RAPID How do

项目摘要

Extreme weather events can alter resources in dramatic ways, which can have positive, negative, or neutral impacts on species. In the case of hurricanes and tropical storms, heavy rains could trigger an unusual pulse of plant growth or, if extreme, drown critical resources. This substantial shift in resource availability almost certainly impacts the survival, reproduction, and growth of local populations; however, the extent to which migratory species are impacted is much less clear. Out-of-season resources may disrupt migration as individuals alter their normal behaviors, with potential negative consequences if arrival to winter or summer habitat is delayed or blocked. Alternatively, migratory species may avoid gaps in resources by shifting their routes, or even capitalize on resources that peak following heavy rainfall events, improving their survival at stopover locations and fitness at destination habitats. Texas is a critical migratory pathway in North America for many species of birds, bats, and insects and its position bordering the gulf coast means that it is also subject to many severe weather events during the tropical storm season. The recent flooding associated with Hurricane Harvey, the most extreme rainfall event in US history, provides a unique opportunity to investigate how plant resources shift in response to disruptive weather events. Further, hypotheses on the demographic responses of migratory species will be rigorously tested at both local and regional scales. This project will study the impact of Hurricane Harvey on a model migratory species, the eastern North American monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) population, with the goal of developing a framework to understand the impact of extreme flooding events on migratory species. The results will inform conservation efforts for the monarch butterfly, population models, and climate forecasting. This research will examine the effects of Harvey on monarch dynamics in the local Texas migratory corridor and evaluate the potential for carry-over effects into the monarch's overwintering population in Mexico and summer breeding population in central and eastern North America. The project will accomplish this through three key activities. First, data will be collected at survey sites throughout the affected area during the fall, winter, and spring of the 2017-2018 migratory season. Second, the impact of Harvey and other recent extreme rainfall events will be explored using climate data and remotely-sensed satellite imagery to model vegetation growth. Finally, monarch population models will link local conditions in Texas to the overwintering population in Mexico, and subsequently to spring and summer generations. This research advances macrosystems ecology by expanding the spatiotemporal scale at which carry-over effects from resource disruptions may impact migratory species, and providing a framework for incorporating conditions experienced by animals during migratory periods (the least-studied stages of the annual cycle) into population models to evaluate mechanisms governing long-term trends.

极端天气事件可以以戏剧性的方式改变资源，这些资源可能对物种产生正，负或中性影响。就飓风和热带风暴而言，大雨可能会引发植物生长的异常脉搏，或者，如果极端淹没了关键的资源。资源可用性的这种重大转变几乎可以肯定会影响当地人口的生存，繁殖和增长。但是，迁徙物种受到影响的程度要清楚得多。当个人改变其正常行为时，季节外资源可能会破坏迁移，如果到达冬季或夏季栖息地延迟或阻塞，可能会带来潜在的负面后果。另外，迁徙物种可以通过移动其路线来避免资源差距，甚至利用大量降雨事件之后达到高峰的资源，从而改善了其在中途停留地点的生存和目的地栖息地的健身。得克萨斯州是北美的一条关键迁徙途径，用于许多鸟类，蝙蝠和昆虫，其与墨西哥湾沿岸接壤的位置意味着在热带风暴季节，它也受到许多恶劣天气事件的约束。最近与美国历史上最极端的降雨事件相关的洪水与飓风哈维有关，为调查植物资源如何转移造成破坏性天气事件的转移提供了独特的机会。此外，对迁徙物种的人口反应的假设将在地方和区域尺度上进行严格测试。该项目将研究哈维飓风对迁徙物种的影响，即东北美君主蝴蝶（Danaus plexippus L.）人口，目的是开发一个框架来了解极端洪水事件对迁徙物种的影响。结果将为君主蝴蝶，人口模型和气候预测提供保护工作。这项研究将研究哈维当地德克萨斯州迁徙走廊的君主动态的影响，并评估墨西哥中部和北美东部和东部东部的君主越冬人口和夏季繁殖种群的潜力。该项目将通过三个关键活动来实现这一目标。首先，将在2017-2018迁徙季节的秋季，冬季和春季期间在整个受影响地区的调查地点收集数据。其次，将使用气候数据和远程感知的卫星图像来探索Harvey和其他最近的极端降雨事件的影响，以模拟植被生长。最后，君主人口模型将把得克萨斯州的地方条件与墨西哥越冬的人口联系起来，随后又将其与春季和夏季的几代联系起来。这项研究通过扩大时空量表来推动宏观系统的生态学，其中资源中断可能会影响迁徙物种，并为将动物在迁移期（年度周期最少的阶段）（年度周期中最不足的阶段）纳入人群模型中以评估长期趋势的机制提供了一个框架。