RAPID: Hurricane Irma: Effects of repeated severe storms on shallow Caribbean reefs and their changing ecological resilience

RAPID：飓风艾尔玛：反复发生的严重风暴对加勒比浅海珊瑚礁的影响及其不断变化的生态恢复力

基本信息

批准号：
1801335
负责人：
Peter Edmunds
金额：
$ 7.33万
依托单位：
The University Corporation, Northridge
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-11-15 至 2019-04-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1801335&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
RAPID Hurricane Irma Effects repeated

项目摘要

Coral reefs have long been recognized for their diversity, and unique functional roles, but these features have been undermined by decades of disturbances that cast doubt on their ability to survive. Against this backdrop, 2017 brought two hurricanes of unprecedented magnitude to the Caribbean, both of which damaged coral reefs that already were degraded compared to those of a few decades ago. While the impacts of these storms on some of the few coral reefs protected within the US National Park and National Monument systems is particularly unfortunate, it also creates unique opportunities to understand the impacts on coral reefs that have been studied in detail for decades. This project builds on these opportunities by leveraging 31 years of coral reef monitoring research, much of which has been supported by NSF, to describe the impacts of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on coral reefs in St. John, US Virgin Islands. That the analyses will reveal severe destruction is a forgone conclusion, but what remains unknown is how present-day reefs will respond to severe versions of a well-known disturbance (hurricanes), and how these effects will impact their long-term survival. Post-storm surveys and new analyses will be used to determine whether ongoing declines in coral abundance have influenced the way coral reefs respond to storms, notably to enhance post-storm mortality, and reduce the capacity to recover from such event. To achieve these outcomes, a team of researchers from California State University, Northridge, will use a cruise on the R/V Walton Smith to survey the reefs of St. John using photography and in-water counts to generate data that will be analyzed throughout 2018. The benefits of this research will extend beyond scientific discoveries to include leveraged support for other scientists participating in the cruise, evaluation of the status of natural resources in the VI National Park, the delivery of relief supplies from Miami to St. John, and the creation of unique research and training opportunities for graduate students who will participate in all phases of the project. Coral reefs have undergone dramatic changes in community structure since they were first described in the 1950's, and the current onslaught of threats from rising temperature, declining seawater pH, storms, and numerous other events has cast doubt on their persistence in the Athropocene. With such profound changes underway, time-series analyses of community structure are on the cutting edge of contemporary studies of coral reefs. In the Caribbean, the impact of two category 5 hurricanes underscores why time-series are important, as they are the only means to describe the impact of such events, and critically, create the context for testing hypotheses regarding impacts and consequences of disturbances. This project addresses the impacts of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on the coral reefs of St. John, US Virgin Islands, which have been studied since the 1950's, and for the last 31 years largely with NSF LTREB support. This support provides descriptions of the population dynamics of the important coral, Orbicella annularis, and the coral community dynamics in adjacent habitats. Any study of the effects of these storms will demonstrate that large waves kill corals, but here intellectual merit is acquired through testing of general hypotheses: (1) storm impacts on O. annularis will be colony-density dependent, (2) delayed coral mortality will be accentuated compared to previous storms, (3) the resilience of coral communities to physical disturbances has declined since 1989, and (4) evolutionary rescue will mediate reef recovery for select corals through large initial population sizes, density-dependent population growth, and recruitment. These hypotheses will be tested using a 14 day cruise on the R/V Walton Smith to collect critical time-sensitive data, followed by a year of analysis of new and legacy photographic data.

珊瑚礁长期以来因其多样性和独特的功能作用而受到认可，但这些特征已被数十年的干扰所破坏，人们对它们的生存能力产生了怀疑。在此背景下，2017年加勒比地区遭遇了两次规模空前的飓风，两次飓风都对珊瑚礁造成了破坏，珊瑚礁与几十年前相比已经退化。虽然这些风暴对美国国家公园和国家纪念碑系统内受保护的少数珊瑚礁造成的影响尤其不幸，但它也创造了独特的机会来了解对珊瑚礁的影响，这些影响已经被详细研究了几十年。该项目以这些机会为基础，利用 31 年的珊瑚礁监测研究（其中大部分得到了 NSF 的支持）来描述飓风艾尔玛和玛丽亚对美属维尔京群岛圣约翰珊瑚礁的影响。分析将揭示严重的破坏已成定局，但仍然未知的是，当今的珊瑚礁将如何应对众所周知的干扰（飓风）的严重版本，以及这些影响将如何影响它们的长期生存。风暴后调查和新的分析将用于确定珊瑚丰度的持续下降是否影响了珊瑚礁应对风暴的方式，特别是增加了风暴后的死亡率，并降低了从此类事件中恢复的能力。为了实现这些成果，来自加州州立大学北岭分校的一组研究人员将利用沃尔顿·史密斯号 R/V 的巡航，利用摄影和水中计数来调查圣约翰的珊瑚礁，以生成将在整个过程中进行分析的数据。 2018年。这项研究的好处将不仅仅局限于科学发现，还包括为参与巡航的其他科学家提供杠杆支持、评估 VI 国家公园的自然资源状况、从迈阿密向圣约翰运送救援物资，以及创造独特的研究和培训为研究生提供参与该项目所有阶段的机会。自 1950 年代首次描述珊瑚礁以来，珊瑚礁的群落结构经历了巨大的变化，目前气温上升、海水 pH 值下降、风暴和许多其他事件带来的威胁，使人们对珊瑚礁在人类世中的持续存在产生了怀疑。随着如此深刻的变化的发生，群落结构的时间序列分析处于当代珊瑚礁研究的前沿。在加勒比地区，两场 5 级飓风的影响凸显了时间序列的重要性，因为它们是描述此类事件影响的唯一手段，而且更重要的是，它为测试有关干扰影响和后果的假设创造了背景。该项目旨在解决飓风“艾尔玛”和“玛丽亚”对美属维尔京群岛圣约翰珊瑚礁的影响，自 1950 年代以来一直在研究这些影响，过去 31 年主要是在 NSF LTREB 的支持下进行的。这种支持提供了重要珊瑚环形珊瑚的种群动态以及邻近栖息地的珊瑚群落动态的描述。对这些风暴影响的任何研究都将证明巨浪会杀死珊瑚，但这里的智力价值是通过检验一般假设获得的：(1) 风暴对环状圆藻的影响将取决于菌落密度，(2) 延迟珊瑚死亡率与之前的风暴相比，这种影响将会更加严重，(3) 自 1989 年以来，珊瑚群落对物理干扰的恢复能力有所下降，(4) 进化救援将通过较大的初始种群规模、依赖于密度的种群增长来调节某些珊瑚的珊瑚礁恢复，以及招聘。这些假设将通过在 R/V Walton Smith 上进行 14 天的巡航来测试，以收集关键的时间敏感数据，然后对新旧摄影数据进行一年的分析。