Developing Tree-Ring Based Streamflow Reconstructions for Large and Complex River Basins

为大型复杂流域开发基于树木年轮的水流重建

基本信息

批准号：
1759629
负责人：
Kevin Anchukaitis
金额：
$ 27.97万
依托单位：
University of Arizona
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2018-09-01 至 2023-02-28
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1759629&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Developing Tree Ring Based Streamflow

项目摘要

This project analyses the use of tree-ring derived streamflow information as an alternative technique to develop long-term records of river streamflow in temperate, complex river-basins. Better and longer stream-flow records will help improve water resource management in large and complex watersheds experiencing and anticipating drought and water supply shortages. In places where measured runoff records are limited, tree-ring based streamflow records can be used to understand the range of possible variability and to therefore improve water management planning and modeling. This technique has mostly been used in semi-arid environments with relatively simple surface hydrology. This project implements and analyses tree-ring based streamflow modeling techniques in temperate, hydrologically complex watersheds, to assess its effectiveness, and thereby improving drought mitigation in those basins. This research will be conducted in collaboration with local stakeholders, and has the potential to inform local water management plans, fish conservation, and ongoing negotiations of water and resource rights. Technical workshops will build capacity for stakeholders to incorporate these new records into their own decision-making framework. The project provides field and academic learning opportunities for an undergraduate student and supports the continuing research program of an early career female Postdoctoral Research Scientist. Large temperate watersheds are increasingly susceptible to the impacts of drought, but their complex hydrology complicates the application of flow reconstruction to water supply forecasting. To accomplish meaningful tree-ring modeling in these basins, where multiple, shifting sources of runoff across several sub-basins mean that water management is reliant on seasonal streamflow information, this project directly targets drought-season runoff and decomposes the study watershed basin into independent main-stem and sub-basin reconstructions. This project will compare a large network of tree-ring chronologies with meteorological, gridded climate, and instrumental streamflow data from the basin main-stem and sub-basin gauges. Using these relationships as a guide for targeted chronology resampling, paleoclimate reconstructions of past summer runoff and drought will be developed for each basin spanning the last several centuries. During the summer season a combination of snowmelt, air temperatures, and rainfall determine streamflow and each of these factors is also linked to radial tree growth. The reconstructions will be statistically compared against independent estimates of past hydro-climate variability, model simulations, and independently developed climate fields to determine whether recent droughts have been exceptional in the last several centuries, and whether medium- and long-term internal hydro-climate variability contains a forced anthropogenic signal. Updated chronologies will permit examination of a recent extreme drought event and estimates of the probability of similar-magnitude droughts in the future. By targeting one of the most complex river basins in the world, the Fraser River Basin (FRB), this project provides a sound framework for enhancing water management in temperate watersheds in the United States and around the globe.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目分析了利用树木年轮得出的水流信息作为替代技术来开发温带复杂河流流域的河流水流的长期记录。更好、更长的河流流量记录将有助于改善正在经历和预计出现干旱和供水短缺的大型复杂流域的水资源管理。在测量径流记录有限的地方，基于树木年轮的水流记录可用于了解可能的变化范围，从而改进水管理规划和建模。该技术主要用于地表水文相对简单的半干旱环境。该项目在温带、水文复杂的流域实施和分析基于树木年轮的水流建模技术，以评估其有效性，从而改善这些流域的干旱缓解措施。这项研究将与当地利益相关者合作进行，并有可能为当地水资源管理计划、鱼类保护以及正在进行的水和资源权利谈判提供信息。技术研讨会将为利益相关者建立能力，将这些新记录纳入自己的决策框架。该项目为本科生提供实地和学术学习机会，并支持早期职业女性博士后研究科学家的继续研究计划。大型温带流域越来越容易受到干旱的影响，但其复杂的水文使流量重建在供水预测中的应用变得复杂。为了在这些流域中完成有意义的树木年轮建模，在这些流域中，多个子流域的径流来源多种多样，意味着水管理依赖于季节性水流信息，该项目直接针对干旱季节径流，并将研究流域流域分解为独立的流域。主干和次流域重建。该项目将把大型树木年轮网络与来自流域主干和次流域测量仪的气象、网格气候和仪器水流数据进行比较。利用这些关系作为有针对性的年代学重采样的指南，将为过去几个世纪的每个流域开发过去夏季径流和干旱的古气候重建。在夏季，融雪、气温和降雨量的结合决定了水流，并且这些因素中的每一个也与径向树木的生长有关。重建结果将与过去水文气候变异性的独立估计、模型模拟和独立开发的气候场进行统计比较，以确定最近几个世纪以来最近的干旱是否异常，以及中长期内部水文气候是否会受到影响。变异性包含强制的人为信号。更新的年表将允许检查最近的极端干旱事件并估计未来类似规模干旱的可能性。该项目以世界上最复杂的河流流域之一弗雷泽河流域 (FRB) 为目标，为加强美国和全球温带流域的水管理提供了一个良好的框架。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命和通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，该项目被认为值得支持。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（5）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Unprecedented 21st century heat across the Pacific Northwest of North America

北美西北部太平洋遭遇21世纪前所未有的高温

DOI：
10.1038/s41612-023-00340-3
发表时间：
2023-02-17
期刊：
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
影响因子：
9
作者：
K. J. Heeter;G. Harley;J. Abatzoglou;K. Anchukaitis;E. Cook;Bethany L Coulthard;Laura A. Dye;Inga K. Homfeld
通讯作者：
Inga K. Homfeld

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

公元纪元和人类世的特大干旱

DOI：
10.1038/s43017-022-00329-1
发表时间：
2022-11
期刊：
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
影响因子：
42.1
作者：
Cook, Benjamin I.;Smerdon, Jason E.;Cook, Edward R.;Williams, A. Park;Anchukaitis, Kevin J.;Mankin, Justin S.;Allen, Kathryn;Andreu;Ault, Toby R.;Belmecheri, Soumaya;et al
通讯作者：
et al

Paleohydrological context for recent floods and droughts in the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia, Canada

加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省弗雷泽河流域近期洪水和干旱的古水文背景