Testing Unpredictability with Multiple Worlds

用多个世界测试不可预测性

• 批准号: 1756822
• 负责人: Michael Macy
• 金额: $ 33.5万
• 依托单位: Cornell University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-07-01 至 2021-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1756822&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Testing; Unpredictability; Multiple; Worlds

This project uses a "multiple worlds" experimental paradigm to test the prediction that divisions of opinion between political or demographic groups may be arbitrary and unpredictable as cultural fads have been shown to be. Recent research shows that the popularity of cultural artifacts, such as books, music, and movies, may be contingent on initial opinions. These are often arbitrary and unpredictable, yet subsequently can drive huge opinion cascades. A similar dynamic may explain the divisions that emerge between political partisans or demographic groups (e.g. young and old, men and women). That is, when an initial group of visible partisans disagree, subsequent opinion generators from each side may take this a cue to how they should act, furthering the divide between the groups in a cascading fashion. Findings will serve the national welfare by shedding light on arbitrary social processes that may amplify societal discord and so offering the possibility of ameliorating their effects.The hypothesis of this project is that division between groups can be driven by a dynamic similar to that found by Salganik, Dodds, and Watts (2006) in their investigation of the fickleness of cultural success. They created an experimental music download site, with multiple worlds in which users could only see the downloads of those in their same experimental world. Findings were that the opinions converged more in the worlds where users could see the activity of others around them. To test the hypothesis of this project, a website will be created where experiment participants will be asked to register their political and demographic affiliations. They then will be divided into different experimental worlds, including one independent world (a control). In all worlds, users will vote on various issues. In experimental conditions, users will be able to see the opinions for all in-group and out-group members in their world. By contrast, those in the control condition will vote without seeing other people's opinions. The prediction to be tested is that initial opinion differences between groups will be arbitrary, such that the direction of the association between opinions and groups will vary between worlds, but that the group influence will amplify these differences, leading variations to be stronger than expected by chance.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目使用“多个世界”实验范式来检验以下预测，即政治或人口统计群体之间的意见分歧可能是任意的，并且是不可预测的，因为已经证明文化时尚。最近的研究表明，文化文物（例如书籍，音乐和电影）的普及可能取决于初始意见。 这些通常是任意和不可预测的，但随后可以推动巨大的意见级联。类似的动态可能解释了政治党派或人口群体之间出现的分歧（例如年轻人和老年人，男人和女人）。也就是说，当一群可见的游击队不同意时，随后的意见发电机可能会以这一提示为他们的行为，从而以级联的方式进一步发展群体之间的鸿沟。调查结果将通过阐明可能扩大社会不和谐的任意社会过程并提供改善其效果的可能性来为国家福利提供服务。该项目的假设是，群体之间的划分可以由与Salganik，Dodds，Dodds和Watts（2006）相似的动态驱动，以研究文化成功。 他们创建了一个实验性音乐下载网站，其中有多个世界，其中用户只能在同一实验世界中看到那些人的下载。 研究结果是，在世界上，用户可以看到周围其他人的活动的观点更多。 为了检验该项目的假设，将创建一个网站，要求实验参与者注册其政治和人口隶属关系。然后，他们将分为不同的实验世界，包括一个独立的世界（一个控制）。在各个世界中，用户将对各种问题进行投票。在实验条件下，用户将能够看到全世界所有小组内和小组成员的意见。相比之下，处于控制状态的人将投票而不会看到别人的意见。要测试的预测是，群体之间的初始意见差异将是任意的，因此，观点和群体之间的关联方向将有所不同，但是小组的影响将扩大这些差异，导致差异比Chance预期的更强。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过评估基金会的范围和广泛的范围来表现出来的支持。

项目成果

Opinion cascades and the unpredictability of partisan polarization

• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aax0754
• 发表时间: 2019-08-01
• 期刊: SCIENCE ADVANCES
• 影响因子: 13.6
• 作者: Macy, Michael;Deri, Sebastian;Tong, Natalie
• 通讯作者: Tong, Natalie