Collaborative Research: Evolutionary responses to environmental change at range limits: adaptation, migration, and population size at the core, margin, and trailing edge

合作研究：对范围限制内环境变化的进化反应：适应、迁移和核心、边缘和后缘的人口规模

• 批准号: 1656099
• 负责人: Stephen Keller
• 金额: $ 70万
• 依托单位: University of Vermont & State Agricultural College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-08-01 至 2022-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1656099&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Evolutionary; responses; environmental; Collaborative; Research; Evolutionary; responses; environmental

Biologists lack a general understanding of the interaction between changes in climate and variation in abundance, connectivity, and local adaptation from the center to the edge of species' ranges. By the end of the 21st century, temperatures are predicted to rise 3-5 degrees C across much of temperate and boreal North America, causing populations of many species to face climate conditions beyond their current tolerances. Mathematical models predict that evolution in response to environmental change can depend critically on how close populations are located to the edge of their range, yet little is known empirically about how responses to environmental change vary spatially across a species' distribution, especially near range limits. This research uses an ecologically and economically important forest tree in eastern North America, red spruce (Picea rubens), to study the effects of range limits on responses to environmental change. The project addresses the overarching question: how do shifting range limits driven by environmental change affect adaptation, migration, and population size across a species' distribution? Addressing this problem advances our scientific understanding of adaptation at range limits and the processes that constrain species distributions. In addition, this work addresses a pressing applied problem of how environmental change will affect the productivity of natural and human-managed ecosystems located in marginal environments. Additional broader impacts include assessing the conservation status of southern populations of a foundation tree species in eastern coniferous forests at risk of local extinction. The results will be shared with diverse stakeholders working on forest conservation and management, and will be integrated with assessments of local population vulnerability and the design of informed mitigation efforts. Local citizens in rural communities will be engaged through public science outreach. This award will also serve to train two postdoctoral researchers, one graduate student, and numerous undergraduate researchers in evolutionary ecology, plant physiology, and environmental change science.The experimental approach of the research will leverage species distribution modeling to track historical range movements in red spruce over the last 11,000 years, and predict proximity to the shifting range limit for different locales. These predictions will then be related to the changing size, connectivity, and ecophysiology of populations experiencing environmental change by sampling fossil spruce pollen preserved in sediment and using recent advances at the interface of paleoecology and population genetics to measure plant water use efficiency, effective population size, and connectivity through time. The research will also couple the latest techniques in ecological genomics with novel spatial modeling approaches to predict how local adaptation will vary with proximity to the range limit under scenarios of projected climate warming in North America.

生物学家对气候变化与从中心到物种范围边缘的局部适应性变化之间的相互作用有所了解。到21世纪末，预计温度将在温带和北美大部分地区上升3-5摄氏度，导致许多物种的种群面临超出其当前公差的气候条件。数学模型预测，响应环境变化的进化可以严重取决于种群的范围边缘的距离，但在经验上几乎不知道对环境变化的响应如何在物种的分布中在空间变化中如何变化，尤其是接近范围的限制。这项研究使用北美东部的生态和经济上重要的森林树红云杉（Picea Rubens）研究范围限制对环境变化的响应的影响。该项目解决了一个总体问题：环境变化驱动的转移范围限制如何影响适应性，迁移和人口规模跨物种的分布？解决这个问题的方法可以提高我们对适应范围限制的科学理解以及限制物种分布的过程。此外，这项工作解决了一个紧迫的应用问题，即环境变化将如何影响位于边缘环境中的自然和人为管理生态系统的生产力。其他更广泛的影响包括评估东部针叶林中基础树种南部种群的保护状况，面临局部灭绝的风险。结果将与从事森林保护和管理的各种利益相关者共享，并将与评估当地人群脆弱性和明智的缓解工作的设计相结合。农村社区的当地公民将通过公共科学宣传活动。该奖项还将用于培训两名博士后研究人员，一名研究生，以及众多在进化生态学，植物生理学和环境变化科学领域的本科研究人员。该研究的实验方法将利用物种分布建模来跟踪过去11,000年的历史范围运动，并预测与不同地区相关的不同地方。然后，这些预测将与通过对沉积物中保留的化石云杉花粉进行采样以及使用古生物学和种群遗传学界面的最新进展来测量植物用水效率，有效的人口大小和连通的界面上的最新进展，从而与经历环境变化的人群的规模，连通性和生态生物学变化有关。这项研究还将将生态基因组学的最新技术与新型的空间建模方法相结合，以预测在北美预计气候变暖的情况下，局部适应性如何随着与范围限制的距离而变化。