Collaborative Research: Common Era Climate Variability from Marine Proxy Surrogate Reconstructions

合作研究：海洋代理替代重建的共同时代气候变化

• 批准号: 1536249
• 负责人: Michael Evans
• 金额: $ 6万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-08-15 至 2018-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1536249&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Common; Era; Climate

The density-driven Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which can influence climate on regional and global scales, is poorly constrained by brief observational records. This adds considerable uncertainty to the interpretation of modern climate trends and to forecasts of future change. The proposed work will extend the instrumental record by generating quantitative reconstructions of AMOC variability over the past 2,000 years within the physically consistent framework of coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations. The project will identify the significant patterns of AMOC variability that emerge from proxy data and their most likely causes. Synthetic pseudoproxies will be used to evaluate the skill of these results and identify sites that might reduce uncertainty in the future. Results from this work will provide a valuable baseline for natural AMOC-climate relationships, giving context to recent trends that will inform future climate change forecasts. The research will combine a network of marine proxy records spanning the past two millennia, compiled during Phase 1 of the PAGES Ocean2K initiative, with Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) isotope enabled AOGCMs to estimate AMOC using proxy surrogate reconstructions (PSRs). The uncertainty in the PSR method arising from methodological choices, data type, proxy distribution and observational error will be evaluated based, in part, on pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs). PSRs represent completely consistent physical systems, allowing AMOC strength and pattern in skillful PSRs to be compared with atmospheric circulation, external radiative forcing and other variables to evaluate their dynamical links. Confidence in PSRs will likely increase as the proxy network expands in the future, and a PPE will be used to identify additional locations from which additional data might reduce the uncertainty in PSR-based estimates of AMOC (and other variables), providing a target for future work. In addition to the broader scientific relevance of advancing the international Oceans2K and model intercomparison project efforts, other notable impacts include support of an early career researcher with no prior NSF support, research opportunities for undergraduates, and involvement of both researchers in local education initiatives for minorities and high school students.

密度驱动的大西洋子午翻转循环（AMOC）可能会影响区域和全球尺度的气候，这受到简短的观察记录的限制很大。这增加了对现代气候趋势的解释和未来变化的预测的极大不确定性。拟议的工作将通过在过去2，000年内生成对耦合的海洋 - 大气通用循环模型（AOGCM）模拟的物理一致框架中的AMOC变异性的定量重建来扩展仪器记录。该项目将确定从代理数据及其最可能原因中产生的AMOC变异性的重要模式。合成假发素将用于评估这些结果的技能，并确定可能在将来降低不确定性的站点。这项工作的结果将为自然的AMOC气候关系提供宝贵的基准，从而为最新趋势提供了背景，这些趋势将为未来的气候变化预测提供信息。这项研究将结合跨越过去两千年的海洋代理记录网络，该网络在Pages Ocean2K计划的第1阶段编制，以及气候模型模型对比项目（CMIP）同位素同位素促使AOGCMS可以使用代理替代替代替代重建（PSRS）估算AMOC。方法学选择，数据类型，代理分布和观察误差引起的PSR方法的不确定性将部分基于伪耐二耐实验（PPES）。 PSR代表了完全一致的物理系统，可以将熟练的PSR的AMOC强度和模式与大气循环，外部辐射强迫和其他变量进行比较，以评估其动力环节。随着代理网络将来的扩展，对PSR的信心可能会增加，并且将使用PPE来识别其他位置，从中，其他数据可能会减少基于PSR的AMOC（和其他变量）的不确定性，从而为未来工作提供了目标。除了推进国际海洋2K和模型对比项目工作的更广泛的科学意义外，其他值得注意的影响还包括支持早期的职业研究员，没有任何先前的NSF支持，本科生的研究机会以及研究人员参与当地教育计划的少数群体和高中生。