CNH-S: The New 100th Meridian: Urban Water Resiliency in a Climatic and Demographic Hot Spot

CNH-S：新的第 100 条子午线：气候和人口热点地区的城市水弹性

• 批准号: 1518541
• 负责人: Jay Banner
• 金额: $ 49.99万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-09-15 至 2021-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1518541&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; New; 100th; Meridian; Urban

John Wesley Powell, famed American explorer and first U.S. Geological Survey director, popularized the 100th Meridian as the climatic boundary between the humid east and the semi-arid west - the geographic origin of the western United States. There is good agreement among climate models indicating a warmer and probable drier future for central Texas. As such, the transitional boundary between the humid east and semiarid west is shifting eastward from the 100th Meridian. The major cities of San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, and the Rio Grande Valley are located just east of the 100th Meridian, and rank among the fastest growing regions in the U.S. The state is projected to double in population by the year 2065. The central Texas corridor's position near the climatic boundary makes it particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. Couple climate change with rapid population and economic growth, and man-made forces become an important driver of future water scarcity in times of drought. It is because of these twin drivers of climate change and population/economic growth that the central Texas corridor can be viewed as a sentinel community; that is, the changes that are currently underway in the region may predict trends for other parts of the U.S. Thus, research will be conducted on climate, population, urbanization and water resources in this region, as it is a valuable proving ground for new techniques and strategies to address water scarcity.The research comprises: 1) Identifying the Grand Challenges for understanding Texas water resiliency; 2) comparison of 21st century climate model projections at high spatial resolution and improving our understanding of the mechanisms that drive drought in Texas; 3) development of scenarios of demographic changes and regional development for the 21st century in Texas; and 4) integration of the above into a regional evaluation of future water resiliency for the state. New research activities will bring together researchers from complementary disciplines to initiate collaborations and synthesize research activities. The overarching goal of this research is to build knowledge regarding the factors that will impact future water resiliency in the rapidly changing human and natural systems of Texas, which will have applicability to other regions for which significant population growth and changing water availability are projected.

美国著名探险家、美国地质调查局首任局长约翰·韦斯利·鲍威尔 (John Wesley Powell) 将第 100 条子午线推广为潮湿的东部和半干旱的西部之间的气候分界线，即美国西部的地理起源。气候模型之间存在良好的一致性，表明德克萨斯州中部未来可能会更加温暖和干燥。因此，湿润的东部和半干旱的西部之间的过渡边界正在从第 100 度子午线向东移动。圣安东尼奥、奥斯汀、达拉斯、沃斯堡和里奥格兰德河谷等主要城市均位于第 100 条子午线以东，是美国增长最快的地区之一。预计到 2065 年，该州的人口将增加一倍德克萨斯州中部走廊靠近气候边界的位置使其对温度和降水的变化特别敏感。将气候变化与人口和经济的快速增长相结合，人为力量成为未来干旱时期水资源短缺的重要驱动因素。正是由于气候变化和人口/经济增长的双重驱动因素，德克萨斯州中部走廊可以被视为哨兵社区；也就是说，该地区目前正在发生的变化可能会预测美国其他地区的趋势。因此，将对该地区的气候、人口、城市化和水资源进行研究，因为它是新技术的宝贵试验场研究包括： 1) 确定了解德克萨斯州水资源弹性的重大挑战； 2) 在高空间分辨率下比较 21 世纪气候模型预测，提高我们对德克萨斯州干旱驱动机制的理解； 3) 制定德克萨斯州 21 世纪人口变化和区域发展情景； 4) 将上述内容纳入对该州未来水资源弹性的区域评估中。新的研究活动将汇集互补学科的研究人员，发起合作并综合研究活动。这项研究的总体目标是建立有关德克萨斯州快速变化的人类和自然系统中影响未来水弹性的因素的知识，这将适用于预计人口显着增长和水资源供应变化的其他地区。