Hazards SEES: Improved prediction of geomagnetic disturbances, geomagnetically induced currents, and their impacts on power distribution systems

Hazards SEES：改进对地磁扰动、地磁感应电流及其对配电系统影响的预测

• 批准号: 1520864
• 负责人: Jonathan Makela
• 金额: $ 267万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-08-15 至 2019-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1520864&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Hazards; SEES; Improved; prediction; geomagnetic

Non-technical summarySignificant solar storms cause disturbances in Earth's magnetic field (geomagnetic disturbances or GMDs), which in turn induce currents in electric power transmission systems. These geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) pose a potentially catastrophic threat to the power distribution systems on which society depends. For example, a solar storm in March 1989 triggered GICs that caused cascading transformer failures and widespread blackouts that affected millions of people in Quebec. This project is developing a quantitative understanding of the impacts that GICs and GMDs can have on the power grid, which is critical to helping the utility industry plan ahead and reduce risk. Through developing a comprehensive modeling and analysis approach, beginning with space weather and ending with impacts to grid operation, we are driving new useful analytic tools and insights. We are also improving the scientific community's understanding of the Earth through analysis of coupling between direct magnetic field measurements and transformer neutral currents. Finally, our outreach efforts are providing information to the public about critical concepts related to the sun, the upper atmosphere, space weather hazards, Earth's geophysical properties, and the power grid. Technical SummaryOur project is intended to improve the scientific understanding of the processes governing the impacts on our power distribution system of severe solar storms. The team is studying the relationship between solar wind drivers and magnetic field perturbations on the ground, developing improved models of induced electric fields, and enhancing prediction capabilities for GIC hazards. The team is developing algorithms that both advance the science of induced electric fields and operate as a predictive tool of GIC hazards in the bulk power system, including transformer heating and damage and loss of voltage stability. Impact models are being developed, enhanced, and validated to provide better prediction of the effects of GMDs on power systems for both real-time response and longer-term resilience.

非技术总结太阳风暴会导致地球磁场（地磁干扰或GMD）的干扰，这又在电力传输系统中诱导电流。 这些地磁诱导的电流（GIC）对社会所依赖的权力分配系统构成了潜在的灾难性威胁。 例如，1989年3月的一场太阳风暴引发了巨大的贡献，导致了层叠的变压器故障和广泛的停电，从而影响了魁北克数以百万计的人。 该项目正在对GIC和GMD对电网产生的影响进行定量理解，这对于帮助公用事业行业计划并降低风险至关重要。 通过开发全面的建模和分析方法，从空间天气开始并以对电网操作的影响结束，我们正在推动新的有用的分析工具和见解。 我们还通过分析直接磁场测量和变压器中性电流之间的耦合来改善科学界对地球的理解。 最后，我们的外展工作是向公众提供有关与太阳，高层气氛，太空危害，地球物理特性和功率网格有关的关键概念的信息。技术摘要项目旨在提高对管理对我们严重太阳风暴发电系统的影响的过程的科学理解。该团队正在研究地面上太阳能风能驱动器与磁场扰动之间的关系，开发了改进的诱导电场模型，并增强了GIC危害的预测能力。该团队正在开发算法，这些算法既可以推进诱导的电场科学，又是作为批量电力系统中GIC危害的预测工具，包括变压器加热以及电压稳定性的损坏和损失。正在开发，增强和验证影响模型，以更好地预测GMD对实时响应和长期弹性的影响的影响。