WSC-Category 1: Decision Processes, Climate Change, and Water Resources in the Agricultural Midwest

WSC-类别 1：中西部农业地区的决策过程、气候变化和水资源

• 批准号: 1505309
• 负责人: Adam Ward
• 金额: $ 59.94万
• 依托单位: Indiana University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-11-01 至 2019-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1505309&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: WSC; Category; Decision; Processes; Climate

Covering approximately 40% of the world's landscape, modern agriculture feeds a growing human population and has undeniable impact on Earth's water system. Agriculture affects the supply of clean water to support human activities and ecosystems. A changing climate is a further compounding factor that directly impacts agricultural practices and consequently water quality and quantity. This research will quantify how decision-making by agricultural land managers is influenced by local governance organizations, such as Watershed Management Authorities, and will model the impact of these organizations on water quality and quantity. The research team will construct numerical models to examine the consequences of future scenarios of climate, land management, and land use. Model results will be made accessible to focus groups on a web-based platform, and decision-making forums. To inform future planning, the research team will develop narratives about the social-economic drivers and model-based consequence, strategies for involving governance organizations, advocacy groups, and the general public in policy decisions. This project will integrate teaching and research through the Iowa Initiative for Sustainable Communities. The public will be engaged through decision-making forums and by crowdsourcing hydrologic data. Outcomes from this research will inform local decision making through partnerships with Watershed Management Authorities and directly sharing results with state legislators in multiple forums. A web-based interface will be created for stakeholders to interact with data and models, which is an experiment that can be extended to other regions.The overall scientific objective of this research is to project future scenarios for the agricultural Midwest given changes in climate, land management practices, and local governance. The central hypothesis poses that water resource governance structure and economic concerns supersede changes in climate, flooding, drought, or water quality in influencing land management practices and resultant environmental outcomes. The specific research plan includes quantifying how land management activities affect human and environmental outcomes under a changing climate, assessing the influence of watershed governance in the decision-making process by agricultural land managers, and identifying future scenarios for the region in response to changes in land management and climate.

现代农业覆盖了世界上约40％的景观，可以为人口增长，对地球水系统产生不可否认的影响。农业会影响清洁水的供应，以支持人类的活动和生态系统。气候变化是另一个直接影响农业实践以及水质和数量的复合因素。这项研究将量化农业土地经理的决策如何受地方治理组织（例如流域管理当局）的影响，并将模拟这些组织对水质和数量的影响。研究团队将构建数值模型，以检查气候，土地管理和土地使用的未来情况的后果。模型结果将可以访问基于Web的平台和决策论坛上的焦点小组。为了告知未来的计划，研究团队将开发有关社会经济驱动力和基于模型的后果的叙述，涉及治理组织，倡导团体以及公众参与政策决策的策略。该项目将通过爱荷华州的可持续社区倡议整合教学和研究。公众将通过决策论坛和众包水文数据参与。这项研究的成果将通过与分水岭管理局的合作伙伴关系为当地决策提供依据，并在多个论坛中与州立法者直接分享结果。将创建一个基于Web的界面，供利益相关者与数据和模型进行交互，该实验可以扩展到其他地区。鉴于气候，土地管理实践和地方政府的变化，这项研究的总体科学目标是为中西部农业的未来情况投影未来的情况。 中央假设提出的是，水资源治理结构和经济问题在影响土地管理实践和结果环境成果时取代了气候，洪水，干旱或水质的变化。特定的研究计划包括量化土地管理活动如何影响气候变化的人类和环境成果，评估农业土地管理者在决策过程中的分水岭治理的影响，并确定该地区对土地管理和气候变化的响应的未来情况。