Runups of Unusual Size: Predicting Unexpectedly Large Swash Events

异常规模的上涨：预测意外的大型冲刷事件

• 批准号: 1459049
• 负责人: H. Tuba Ozkan-Haller
• 金额: $ 79.97万
• 依托单位: Oregon State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-06-01 至 2020-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1459049&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Runups; Unusual; Size; Predicting; Unexpectedly; Runups; Unusual; Size; Predicting; Unexpectedly

The goal of this project is to improve our understanding of unusually large wave runup events on ocean beaches. Such runup events are seen with only a small fraction of the waves, yet they are important for the prediction of dune erosion, inundation and coastal flooding during storms. A second type of unusual runup event is also distinguished in that it is sudden and unexpected even if the landward reach of the runup is not a statistical extreme. These large and unusual runup events are the leading cause of death by drowning along the U.S. Pacific Northwest. In order to understand the causes of unexpectedly large runup events, and to begin to forecast their potential occurrence, this project will use existing data, a new multi-year data set and a hierarchy of numerical model simulations and link the events to various generation mechanisms. Finally a model will be developed and tested for forecasting the risk of such events. The team will work with the National Weather Service offices as well as exploring other outlets to communicate severe event forecasts to the public. In addition to increased public safety, this project will also help coastal management efforts. These efforts rely on predictions to outline flood hazard zones and regions appropriate for development. Additionally, findings from the numerical modeling portion of the study will document and potentially advance the accuracy/capabilities of nearshore hydrodynamic models, which will benefit coastal zone management in other geographic settings. Finally the project will contribute to education efforts by directly involving graduate and undergraduate students in the research, paying specific attention to the entrainment of individuals from under-represented groups.The study of swash zone hydrodynamics has seen sustained progress over the last decade, with much of the focus on the characterization of bulk and extreme runup statistics. However, the physical causes of large, and especially of unexpected, events have received considerably less attention. This project will conduct data collection and analysis and numerical model studies designed to distinguish between linear generation mechanisms related to super-position and nonlinear generation mechanisms related to bore-bore capture, incident wave-infragravity wave interactions and uprush-backwash events for large as well as unexpected runup events. Morphodynamic differences between two drastically different beaches, Agate Beach, OR and Duck, NC, will help reveal the role of beach type on the generation of both large and unusual runup events. The observations will allow the team to test and improve the skill of simple extreme runup parametric models during storms.

该项目的目的是提高我们对海洋海滩上异常大型波浪奔跑事件的理解。这样的奔跑事件只有一小部分的海浪，但对于暴风雨期间的预测沙丘侵蚀，淹没和沿海洪水至关重要。 第二种异常的奔跑事件也被区分了，即使奔跑的陆上范围不是统计极端，它是突然而出乎意料的。这些大型和不寻常的奔跑事件是淹没在美国太平洋西北地区的主要死亡原因。为了了解出乎意料的大型运行事件的原因，并开始预测其潜在发生的可能性，该项目将使用现有数据，新的多年数据集和数值模型模拟的层次结构，并将事件与各种生成机制联系起来。最后，将开发和测试模型，以预测此类事件的风险。该团队将与国家气象服务办公室合作，并探索其他媒体，以向公众传达严重的活动预测。除了增加公共安全外，该项目还将有助于沿海管理工作。这些努力依靠预测来概述适合开发的洪水危害区域和地区。此外，研究的数值建模部分将记录并有可能提高近岸流体动力模型的准确性/能力，这将使其他地理环境中的沿海地区管理受益。最后，该项目将通过直接参与研究生和本科生的研究来促进教育努力，并特别注意从代表性不足的群体中夹住个人的夹带。对SWASH区域水动力学的研究在过去十年中已经持续了进步，其中大部分关注体积和极端的成跑统计。但是，大型事件的物理原因受到了大大降低的关注。该项目将进行数据收集和分析以及旨在区分与超级位置和非线性生成机制相关的线性生成机制，与孔孔捕获相关的非线性生成机制，事件波浪 - infragravity波相互作用以及大型和意外的成绩事件的上流式 - 折线事件。两个截然不同的海滩（玛瑙海滩）或北卡罗来纳州鸭子（Duck）之间的形态动力学差异将有助于揭示海滩类型在大型和不寻常的奔跑事件中产生的作用。这些观察结果将使团队能够在暴风雨期间测试和提高简单的Extreme Extrup参数模型的技能。