Collaborative Research: Testing Hypotheses About Fire Using Data Syntheses and Fire Modeling

协作研究：使用数据合成和火灾建模检验有关火灾的假设

• 批准号: 1435744
• 负责人: Patrick Bartlein
• 金额: $ 2.74万
• 依托单位: University of Oregon Eugene
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2020-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1435744&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Testing; Hypotheses; About

This research project will investigate how changes in environmental and human activities have influenced fires over time, using a combination of datasets that describe past and present variations in fire. The project also will develop a global fire model to help test hypotheses about the roles that environmental factors and humans have played in controlling the location, size, and frequency of fires at regional-to-global scales. The project will provide new information and insights about relationships among fire, climate and other environmental factors, and human activities. The project will contribute to broader scientific advances in knowledge regarding Earth system processes, and the project will enhance the quality of Earth system models that now are incorporating fire in simulations of the global environment. Knowledge of the ways that human activity, climate, and other environmental factors have affected fires in the past at both regional and global scales is critical to understanding how fires will behave in the future. Given the threats that fires pose for humans and the critical role that fires play in the functioning of many ecosystems, increased awareness of the dynamics of fire behavior has considerable practical utility. Project findings will facilitate enable improved representations of the processes that control fire in models across a variety of climate and land-use conditions, thereby informing decisions about natural resource and fire management efforts. The project will provide education and training opportunities for graduate students, and it will assist in the development of curricular materials dealing with the interactions among fire, natural systems, and human activities for use in elementary and secondary schools.This project will use satellite-based reconstructions of fire activity to validate modern-day simulations, and it will advance collection of data to study the factors that have influenced the dynamics and impact of fire in the past. The investigators will combine information from a still-expanding global database of fire over the last millennium with the outputs from global fire modeling. Past fire activity will be estimated from charcoal particles in lake sediments at a given depth as well as the time when the charcoal was deposited as determined through the use of radiocarbon dating. The charcoal records will be used to reconstruct past levels of fire activity under a range of climate and land-use conditions, and the reconstructions will be compared with various simulations of past global fire activity. Combining past and present datasets with model simulations of past climate will provide a more rigorous basis for understanding the specific processes that produce reconstructed and observed changes in fire activity than modern-day (satellite) datasets alone.

该研究项目将使用描述过去和现在的火灾变化的数据集组合来调查环境和人类活动的变化如何随着时间的推移影响大火。 该项目还将开发出一个全球火灾模型，以帮助测试有关环境因素和人类在控制区域到全球尺度上火灾的位置，大小和频率中发挥的作用的假设。 该项目将提供有关火灾，气候和其他环境因素以及人类活动之间关系的新信息和见解。 该项目将有助于更广泛的有关地球系统过程知识的科学进步，该项目将增强现已将火力纳入全球环境模拟中的地球系统模型的质量。 了解人类活动，气候和其他环境因素过去在区域和全球规模上都影响着大火，这对于了解将来火灾将如何行事至关重要。 鉴于对人类施加姿势的威胁以及火灾在许多生态系统的运作中所起的关键作用，因此对火灾行为动态的认识提高了实用性。 项目发现将有助于改善对各种气候和土地利用条件模型控制火灾的进程的表现，从而告知有关自然资源和火灾管理工作的决策。 该项目将为研究生提供教育和培训机会，它将有助于开发用于处理火灾，自然系统和人类活动之间的相互作用的课程材料，以在中小学中使用。该项目将使用基于卫星的火灾活动的重建来验证现代现代模拟，并将推动数据收集的数据收集，从而促进对动态和动态影响的影响因素，并影响了Fire的动力学和过去。 调查人员将在过去的千年中将仍然扩展的全球火灾数据库与全球火灾建模的输出相结合。 过去的火活性将从给定深度的湖泊沉积物中的木炭颗粒以及通过使用放射性碳日期确定的时间来估计。 木炭记录将用于在一系列气候和土地利用条件下重建过去的火灾活动水平，并将重建与过去的全球火灾活动的各种模拟进行比较。 将过去和现在的数据集与过去气候的模型模拟相结合，将为理解与现代（卫星）数据集相比，将产生重建和观察到的火灾活动变化的特定过程提供更严格的基础。