CNH-Ex: Interactive Effects of Economics, Public Policy, Land-Use Change, and Invasive Plants in the Long Island Sound Watersheds

CNH-Ex：长岛海峡流域经济、公共政策、土地利用变化和入侵植物的相互作用

• 批准号: 1414108
• 负责人: Chuanrong Zhang
• 金额: $ 25万
• 依托单位: University of Connecticut
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-08-01 至 2019-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1414108&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Ex; Interactive; Effects; Economics

This research project will investigate the complex interactions among public and economic policy, land-use changes, and invasive plant distributions in the watersheds of Long Island Sound, which include land in seven northeastern states and Quebec in Canada. Once completed, the project will provide a novel modeling methodology for forecasting land-use change; analysis of long-term plant invasion dynamics over a set of possible future land-use scenarios; and an empirical test regarding the optimal locus of governmental policy in dealing with invasive species. The project also will yield practical insights about the potential tradeoffs in setting land-use and invasive species policies at the local vs. higher governmental levels as well as new guidance regarding how spatial variation in management strategies influences invasive species abundance. Because the researchers are interacting with land managers, government agencies, non-governmental organizations, and citizen scientists, project findings will be disseminated broadly and can assist in the management of watershed-level socioecological systems, thus enhancing their resilience. Data and insights from the project will be widely available in association with the Invasive Plant Atlas of New England (IPANE), and workshops and online tools made available through IPANE will be reach out to the public on issues related to invasive species biology and related government policies. Targeted educational activities will aim to share the excitement of conducting interdisciplinary science with middle-school students (especially girls) and secondary-school math and science teachers. The project also will provide special education and training opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.Scientists, policy makers, resource managers, and the public long have been interested in understanding interactions among human activities, invasive plants, and land-use changes, especially as they assess the impact of local, state, or regional policy choices in dealing with invasive plant species. Because the interactions among human activities, land-use systems, policies, and invasive plants are functionally and structurally complex, the researchers conducting this project will provide accessible tools to forecast land-use change and invasive species spread using a scenario approach, and they will quantify spatiotemporal uncertainty of future interactions among human activities, policy choices, land-use changes, and species invasion processes at multiple spatial scales. They will seek answers to the following sets of scientific questions: (1) How might land use change in the future in response to changes in public and economic policies? (2) How will invasive plants respond to future changes in land use and management strategies? (3) Are there policy and management combinations that are effective at controlling invasive plants, and at what level of government should they be implemented? To help answer these questions, the investigators will develop a set of economic and policy scenarios affecting land-use change and invasive species management, develop a new land-use change model, improve methodology for modeling invasive species distributions, and complete multi-jurisdiction policy comparisons on projected invasive species abundances.

该研究项目将调查长岛海峡流域的公共和经济政策、土地利用变化和入侵植物分布之间复杂的相互作用，其中包括加拿大东北部七个州和魁北克省的土地。 一旦完成，该项目将为预测土地利用变化提供一种新颖的建模方法；分析一系列未来可能的土地利用情景的长期植物入侵动态；以及关于处理入侵物种的政府政策最佳定位的实证检验。 该项目还将就地方与更高政府层面制定土地利用和入侵物种政策的潜在权衡提供实用见解，并就管理策略的空间变化如何影响入侵物种丰度提供新的指导。 由于研究人员正在与土地管理者、政府机构、非政府组织和公民科学家进行互动，项目研究结果将得到广泛传播，并有助于流域级社会生态系统的管理，从而增强其复原力。 该项目的数据和见解将与新英格兰入侵植物图集 (IPANE) 一起广泛提供，通过 IPANE 提供的研讨会和在线工具将向公众介绍与入侵物种生物学和相关政府相关的问题政策。 有针对性的教育活动旨在与中学生（尤其是女孩）和中学数学和科学教师分享进行跨学科科学的兴奋。 该项目还将为本科生和研究生提供特殊教育和培训机会。 该项目得到了 NSF 自然与人类系统耦合动力学 (CNH) 计划的支持。科学家、政策制定者、资源管理者和公众长期以来一直对了解人类活动、入侵植物和土地利用变化之间的相互作用感兴趣，特别是当他们评估地方、州或区域政策选择在处理入侵植物物种方面的影响时。 由于人类活动、土地利用系统、政策和入侵植物之间的相互作用在功能和结构上都很复杂，因此开展该项目的研究人员将提供可用的工具，使用情景方法来预测土地利用变化和入侵物种传播，他们将量化多个空间尺度上人类活动、政策选择、土地利用变化和物种入侵过程之间未来相互作用的时空不确定性。 他们将寻求以下几组科学问题的答案：（1）未来土地利用将如何变化以应对公共和经济政策的变化？ (2) 入侵植物将如何应对未来土地利用和管理策略的变化？ (3) 是否存在有效控制入侵植物的政策和管理组合？应在哪一级政府实施？ 为了帮助回答这些问题，研究人员将制定一套影响土地利用变化和入侵物种管理的经济和政策情景，开发新的土地利用变化模型，改进入侵物种分布建模方法，并完成多管辖区政策预计入侵物种丰度的比较。