The Impact of Tropical/Extratropical Interaction on Atmospheric Teleconnections

热带/温带相互作用对大气遥相关的影响

• 批准号: 1401220
• 负责人: Steven Feldstein
• 金额: $ 65.67万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-05-01 至 2018-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1401220&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Impact; Tropical; Extratropical; Interaction; Atmospheric

This project has the goal of improving understanding of the basic dynamical processes that drive tropical/extratropical interaction on the intraseasonal time by performing both idealized numerical model experiments and diagnostic analyses. Enhanced understanding of tropical/extratropical interaction is crucial for improving medium range (1-4 week) weather forecasts. Recent studies have shown that different phases of an active tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are followed 1-4 weeks later by the excitation of the dominant Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns (both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific/North American patterns), and coincide with large changes in the frequency of occurrence of these teleconnection patterns. It has been found that probabilistic weather forecasts based on both MJO and El-Nino-Southern-Oscillation phases outperform state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models for North America with lead times of 2 to 4 weeks. Changes to Arctic surface air temperature have even been observed following an active MJO.

该项目的目的是通过执行理想化的数值模型实验和诊断分析来提高对季节内热带/热带互动的基本动力学过程的理解。增强对热带/热带互动的了解对于改善中等范围（1-4周）天气预报至关重要。最近的研究表明，在1-4周后，激发了主要的北半球远程连接模式（北大西洋振荡和太平洋/北美模式），紧随其后的是活跃的热带Madden-Julian振荡（MJO）的不同阶段。并与这些遥相模式发生频率发生频率发生了很大变化。已经发现，基于MJO和El-Nino---------苏联阶段的概率天气预测优于北美的最先进的数值天气预测模型，交货时间为2至4周。在活动的MJO之后，甚至观察到对北极表面空气温度的变化。