Collaborative Research: Understanding the potential for a climate change-driven critical transition from forest to chaparral

合作研究：了解气候变化驱动的从森林到丛林的关键转变的潜力

• 批准号: 1353404
• 负责人: Howard Epstein
• 金额: $ 9.85万
• 依托单位: University of Virginia Main Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-08-01 至 2018-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1353404&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Understanding; potential; climate

The frequency and severity of wildfires is changing throughout much of the West, impacting humans and forest ecosystem services and the rate of forest recovery after wildfires. These altered wildfire rates and forest recovery patterns may force the dominant vegetation permanently to shift from forests to shrubs. The 25-million acre (10 million hectare) Klamath region of Oregon and California is an area of particular concern. A shift from forest to shrub would impair the ecosystem services of the forest that benefit humans, impair unparalleled botanical diversity of the Klamath region (for example, there are 29 species of conifer trees that support associated assemblages of other plants and animals) and release massive amounts of greenhouse gasses as these high-carbon sequestering forests transition to low-carbon content shrub-chaparral. The scientists working on this project will evaluate the potential for a forest to shrub transition in the Klamath and collaborate directly with the U.S. Forest Service to identify robust strategies for ecosystem management in the face of climate change. Including the participation of Forest Service decision-makers, who manage 80% of the Klamath region, will ensure the transparency and credibility of the science, thereby increasing its impact on environmental outcomes.This project will test the general hypothesis that climate may drive a critical transition in the Klamath from a high-biomass conifer forest dominated region to a self- low-biomass shrub-chaparral-hardwood dominated region because of increased fire activity and decreased forest recovery rate. The project will quantify the potential for, and mechanisms underlying, a climate induced transition using a three-pronged research approach: (1) development of general mathematical models to gain a broad understanding of dynamics underlying critical thresholds in fire-prone ecotones and to identify the functional relationships that control transitions between shrub-chaparral-hardwood and mature conifer forest, at local and landscape levels; (2) field research to characterize the climate- dependence of post-fire recovery and to test and parameterize models; (3) process-based simulations of local, landscape, and regional dynamics to characterize the interactive roles of climate, fire, and management in shaping the region's ecological communities. Improving understanding of critical transitions has been recognized as a fundamental challenge in ecology with global relevance and urgency in the face of climate change. Increased understanding of the potential for a critical transition in the Klamath region will inform the management of fire-prone forests worldwide.

野火的频率和严重程度在整个西部的大部分地区都在发生变化，影响了人类和森林生态系统服务以及野火后的森林恢复速度。这些改变的野火率和森林恢复模式可能会迫使主要的植被永久从森林转移到灌木。俄勒冈州和加利福尼亚州的2500万英亩（1000万公顷）克拉马斯地区特别关注。从森林到灌木的转变会损害使人类受益的森林的生态系统服务，损害了克拉马斯地区的无与伦比的植物多样性（例如，有29种支持其他植物和动物相关的针叶树种类），并释放大量的温室大量，因为这些高碳固有的森林过渡到这些高碳质量的低碳量，以释放大量的温室大量。从事该项目的科学家将评估森林在克拉马斯中灌木过渡的潜力，并直接与美国森林服务局合作，以确定面对气候变化的生态系统管理的强大策略。 Including the participation of Forest Service decision-makers, who manage 80% of the Klamath region, will ensure the transparency and credibility of the science, thereby increasing its impact on environmental outcomes.This project will test the general hypothesis that climate may drive a critical transition in the Klamath from a high-biomass conifer forest dominated region to a self- low-biomass shrub-chaparral-hardwood dominated region because of increased fire activity and decreased forest recovery 速度。该项目将使用三方面的研究方法来量化气候引起的气候诱导的过渡：（1）开发一般数学模型，以对易发性生态酮的关键阈值以及确定在灌木 - chaparral-chaparral-hardwood and Conifer conifer conifer conifer confers and local和Landscape和Landscape和Landscape和Landscape and Local Scape和Landscape; （2）野外研究以表征大火恢复的气候依赖性以及测试和参数化模型； （3）基于过程的仿真，对本地，景观和区域动态的模拟，以表征气候，火和管理在塑造该地区生态社区中的互动作用。在面对气候变化的情况下，对批判过渡的理解得到了认识，这被认为是生态学中的基本挑战和紧迫性。对克拉马斯地区关键过渡的潜力的更多了解将为全世界易受火灾的森林的管理提供信息。