CAREER:Integrated Research & Education In Stochastic Systems-Based Watershed Management & Water Safety (SWMS)

职业：综合研究

• 批准号: 1351361
• 负责人: Lilit Yeghiazarian
• 金额: $ 40.96万
• 依托单位: University of Cincinnati Main Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-01-15 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1351361&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Integrated; Research; & Education

1351361 (Yeghiazarian). Sustainable management of water resources is unattainable without addressing fecal contamination of surface waters, the leading cause of water impairment nationally. Despite over a decade of research, dynamics of fecal sources and contaminants in surface waters is still poorly understood. There is a need for a systems-based theory that can be used to analyze water-contamination patterns as part of stochastic watershed processes. The objective of this grant is to expand the PI's ongoing research and education program in Stochastic Systems-Based Watershed Management & Water Safety (SWMS). The objective of the research plan is to develop a Stochastic Systems-based Watershed Reliability (SWR) theory, with reliability defined as compliance with microbial water-quality standards, and failure as non-compliance. The rationale for this work is that the SWR theory will make it possible to measure probabilistically the impact of watershed components and microbial sources on overall water quality, and to determine watershed characteristics and external environmental parameters to which microbial water quality is most sensitive. This will help (1) identify the "hot spots" exerting the highest impact, and (2) quantify sustainability metrics such as reliability, vulnerability and resilience, all of which will, in turn, guide prioritization of management measures under various conditions. The objective of the education plan is to promote understanding of systems-based and stochastic approaches to analysis of environmental systems, and to facilitate a widespread use of the SWR theory in education, research and sustainable watershed management. The rationale is that the education plan will (1) produce a cohort of teachers and students knowledgeable in systems analysis, and able to teach and apply their knowledge to solve a wide range of environmental problems; (2) help water resources researchers, practitioners and decision makers become fluent in utilizing stochastic and systems-based tools, and engage in policy-shaping and decision-making in the probabilistic context. The PI expects to attain her research objective by pursuing three specific aims. Aim #1: Collect fecal contamination data in the East Fork Watershed (EFW) of Little Miami. A targeted sampling strategy will be used to provide data for theory testing and validation. Aim #2: Develop the SWR theory with application to EFW. Systems reliability theory, used for risk assessment of multi-component engineered structures, will be developed for contaminant transport processes in watersheds, and applied to the EFW. Aim #3: Compute sustainability metrics and index, and explore their response to various management options. SWR will be used to compute the reliability, resilience and vulnerability metrics and the Sustainability Index (SI) for EFW EFW?s surface waters. Various management scenarios will be simulated, and their impact on the metrics and SI will be analyzed. The approach taken in this proposal integrates state-of-the-art methods from 3 different fields. Environmental engineering provides methods for quantification and prediction of water flow over the land and in stream networks; ecology provides understanding of microbial population dynamics in various portions of the watershed; and systems engineering provides a well-tested methodology for measuring the impact of various components and system parameters in complex systems. The outcome of this research is expected to impact the design of environmental monitoring and sustainable watershed management strategies. They would become more targeted in space and in time, as better understanding is gained about interactions between different system components and sustainability metrics. SWR theory aims to vertically advance the field towards better understanding of how watershed characteristics, external environmental parameters, and microbial transport and interactions in different parts of the watershed influence surface water quality. The project aims to have a significant educational impact by facilitating the understanding and adoption of stochastic, systems-based tools for watershed analysis among students, teachers, researchers and water practitioners.

1351361（Yeghiazarian）。 水资源的可持续管理是无法实现的，而没有解决地表水的粪便污染，这是全国水损害的主要原因。尽管有十多年的研究，但地表水中粪便来源和污染物的动态仍然知之甚少。需要一种基于系统的理论，该理论可用于分析水污染模式，作为随机流域过程的一部分。该赠款的目的是扩大PI在基于系统的流域管理与水安全（SWMS）中正在进行的研究和教育计划。研究计划的目的是开发基于随机系统的流域可靠性（SWR）理论，其可靠性定义为符合微生物水质标准，而失败是不合规的。这项工作的理由是，SWR理论将使流域组件和微生物来源对整体水质的影响进行概率测量，并确定微生物水质最敏感的水域特征和外部环境参数。这将有助于（1）确定影响最大的“热点”，（2）量化可持续性指标，例如可靠性，脆弱性和弹性，所有这些都将在各种条件下指导管理措施的优先级。教育计划的目的是促进对基于系统的和随机方法分析环境系统的理解，并促进SWR理论在教育，研究和可持续分水岭管理中的广泛使用。理由是，教育计划将（1）在系统分析中生成一系列教师和学生，并能够教授和运用他们的知识来解决广泛的环境问题； （2）帮助水资源研究人员，从业人员和决策者在利用随机和基于系统的工具方面流利，并在概率环境中从事政策制定和决策。 PI希望通过追求三个具体目标来实现她的研究目标。目标＃1：在小迈阿密的东叉流域（EFW）收集粪便污染数据。有针对性的抽样策略将用于提供理论测试和验证的数据。目标＃2：通过应用于EFW的SWR理论。系统可靠性理论，用于对多组分工程结构的风险评估，将开发用于流域中的污染物运输过程，并应用于EFW。目标＃3：计算可持续性指标和指数，并探索他们对各种管理选择的反应。 SWR将用于计算EFW EFW的地表水的可靠性，弹性和脆弱性指标以及可持续性指数（SI）。将模拟各种管理方案，并将分析它们对指标和SI的影响。该提案中采用的方法集成了来自3个不同领域的最先进方法。环境工程提供了量化和预测土地和溪流网络中水流的方法；生态学提供了对流域各个部分的微生物种群动态的理解。系统工程提供了经过良好测试的方法，用于测量复杂系统中各种组件和系统参数的影响。这项研究的结果有望影响环境监测和可持续分水岭管理策略的设计。随着对不同系统组件与可持续性指标之间的相互作用，他们将在空间和及时及时变得更具针对性。 SWR理论的目的是垂直推进该领域，以更好地理解流域特征，外部环境参数以及流域不同部分的微生物运输以及相互作用如何影响地表水质。该项目的目的是通过促进学生，教师，研究人员和水从业人员的分水岭分析工具的理解和采用，从而产生重大的教育影响。