Variability and Predictability of African Easterly Waves

非洲东风波的变化和可预测性

• 批准号: 1321568
• 负责人: Christopher Thorncroft
• 金额: $ 66.53万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Albany
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-06-01 至 2019-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1321568&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Variability; Predictability; African; Easterly; Waves

This project will improve our knowledge and understanding of the nature and variability of African easterly wave characteristics and the processes that determine the predictability of African easterly waves at daily-to-intraseasonal timescales. The work is planned around two complementary themes: (i) variability of AEWs and (ii) predictability of AEWs. The variability-work will combine statistical analysis of observations and NWP analyses supported by idealized modeling and a case-study approach to determine the extent to which AEW characteristics vary at daily-to-intraseasonal timescales and why. The predictability work will be explored using forecast sensitivity analyses and will interact strongly with and benefit from the variability work.AEWs provide an opportunity to understand atmospheric predictability for a class of phenomenon where dry and moist dynamics are of equal importance, unlike midlatitude systems that are primarily associated with dry dynamics. Increased knowledge and understanding of the variability and predictability of AEWs is important for weather forecasters concerned with the West African region as well as those interested in the potential for tropical cyclogenesis downstream. The knowledge gained in this project will be used to update the diagnostics on our webpages used for routine monitoring of AEWs and AEW-activity that are used by such forecasters. AEWs are responsible for a significant amount of rainfall during the boreal summer, this work is also applicable to a range of applications important for society including hydrology (and flood prediction), agriculture (and crop prediction) and health (including malaria risk assessments). While such applications will not be dealt with in this project, efforts will be made to communicate the results of this research to the relevant communities. One way to do this will be through communication with scientists working in these areas within the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project.

该项目将提高我们对非洲东部波浪特征的性质和变异性的知识和理解，以及决定日常到季节时间标准中非洲东方波浪可预测性的过程。该工作计划围绕两个互补主题：（i）AEWS的可变性和（ii）AEWS的可预测性。可变性工作将结合由理想化的建模和案例研究方法支持的观测值和NWP分析的统计分析，以确定在日常到期时间范围内AEW特征在多大程度上变化的程度以及原因。可预测性工作将使用预测灵敏度分析进行探索，并将与可变性工作进行牢固相互作用并受益。AEW提供了一个机会，可以理解一类现象的大气可预测性，在这种现象中，干燥和潮湿的动力学具有同等的重要性，与主要与干燥动力学相关的中期系统不同。对AEWS的可变性和可预测性的知识和理解对与西非地区有关的天气预测者以及对下游热带环旋转的潜力感兴趣的天气预测非常重要。该项目中获得的知识将用于更新我们的网页上的诊断，用于例行监视AEWS和AEW活动，这些预报员使用。 AEW在北方夏季负责大量降雨，这项工作还适用于对社会重要的一系列应用，包括水文学（和洪水预测），农业（和农作物预测）和健康（包括疟疾风险评估）。虽然将在该项目中处理此类应用程序，但将努力将这项研究的结果传达给相关社区。一种方法是通过与非洲季风多学科分析（AMMA）项目中在这些领域工作的科学家进行沟通。