Stopping Rule Selection Theory

停止规则选择理论

• 批准号: 1156681
• 负责人: Mario Fific
• 金额: $ 11.17万
• 依托单位: Grand Valley State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-05-01 至 2016-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1156681&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Stopping; Rule; Selection; Theory

In this project the Principal Investigator will develop a new theoretical framework for understanding stopping rules in decision making. The stopping rule is thought to be a crucial component of successful decision making. Over the years, several unconnected explanations have been proposed to account for some observed violations of optimal stopping rules. The current research proposes a unifying explanation for these violations based on a new stopping rule selection (SRS) theory. This theory is innovative in that it proceeds from the assumption that for any given decision problem, a decision maker draws from a large set of different kinds of decision strategies and stopping rules. The SRS theory hypothesizes that there is a storage area for stopping rules -- the so-called decision operative space (DOS) -- and a retrieval mechanism that is used to select stopping rules from the DOS. The SRS theory has shown good fit to some challenging data previously published in the relevant literature. The fits were achieved using pattern analysis, which is a novel approach based on fitting the relative frequency of observed data patterns to the predicted response patterns.In terms of broader impacts, the knowledge gained in the study should be useful to those who seek to develop or improve prescriptive decision aids. Decision aids are commonly employed to improve human performance in complex endeavors, including medicine, aviation, defense and business.

在这个项目中，首席研究员将开发一个新的理论框架来理解决策中的停止规则。停止规则被认为是成功决策的关键组成部分。多年来，人们提出了几种互不相关的解释来解释一些观察到的违反最佳停止规则的情况。当前的研究基于新的停止规则选择（SRS）理论对这些违规行为提出了统一的解释。该理论的创新之处在于它基于这样的假设：对于任何给定的决策问题，决策者都会从大量不同类型的决策策略和停止规则中得出结论。 SRS理论假设存在一个用于停止规则的存储区域——所谓的决策操作空间（DOS）——以及用于从DOS中选择停止规则的检索机制。 SRS 理论已经显示出与相关文献中先前发表的一些具有挑战性的数据的良好拟合。拟合是使用模式分析实现的，这是一种基于将观察到的数据模式的相对频率与预测的响应模式进行拟合的新颖方法。就更广泛的影响而言，研究中获得的知识应该对那些寻求发展的人有用。或改进规范性决策辅助工具。决策辅助通常用于提高复杂工作中的人类绩效，包括医学、航空、国防和商业。