Collaborative Research: Climate Change Impacts on Forest Biodiversity: Individual Risk to Subcontinental Impacts

合作研究：气候变化对森林生物多样性的影响：次大陆影响的个体风险

• 批准号: 1137309
• 负责人: Andrew Finley
• 金额: $ 44.92万
• 依托单位: Michigan State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-02-15 至 2018-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1137309&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Climate; Change; Impacts

Climate change is rapidly transforming forests over much of the globe in ways that are not anticipated by current science. Large scale forest diebacks, apparently linked to interactions involving drought, warm winters, and other species, are becoming alarmingly frequent. Models of biodiversity and climate have not provided guidance on if, where or when such responses will occur. Instead models tend to provide potential numbers of extinctions, but such forecasts are not linked in any mechanistic way to the processes that could cause them. Both modeling and field studies rely on aggregate measures of species presence or absence, or their relative abundance at regional scales. However, climate acts on individuals. Aggregating data on individual trees to the level of a whole species hides or may even change predictions of climate effects. This study aims to link individual scale tree processes to regional species level responses by sampling and analyzing data about individuals across their entire range and corresponding range in climate conditions. It will use data from existing research sites, plus the platform of sites that form the core of the new National Ecological Observatory Network. These data will be collectively synthesized and used to develop computer models that can help determine when and where predicting climate impacts on biodiversity is a plausible goal. The models will also reveal where surprises are likely to occur and can provide feedback to expectations of individual tree health and vulnerability to environmental changes. This study will provide the first forecasts of the vulnerability of forest biodiversity to changes in climate that are directly linked to the biological processes that are most sensitive. The goal is to provide forecasts of the distribution, growth, reproduction and risks of mortality for tree species making up the nation's forests. These predictions will help scientists, forest managers and policy makers anticipate the combined risks of increasing drought and longer growing seasons. Methods and results developed during this project will be disseminated through workshops for training resource managers, as well as graduate students and postdoctoral associates at a number of universities.

气候变化正在以当前科学无法预料的方式迅速改变全球大部分地区的森林。 大规模的森林枯死现象正变得异常频繁，这显然与干旱、暖冬和其他物种的相互作用有关。 生物多样性和气候模型尚未提供有关是否、在何处或何时发生此类反应的指导。 相反，模型倾向于提供潜在的灭绝数量，但此类预测并没有以任何机械方式与可能导致灭绝的过程联系起来。 建模和实地研究都依赖于物种存在或不存在的总体测量，或其在区域尺度上的相对丰度。然而，气候会对个人产生影响。将单棵树的数据汇总到整个物种的水平隐藏甚至可能改变对气候影响的预测。 本研究旨在通过采样和分析整个范围内的个体数据以及气候条件下相应范围的数据，将个体规模的树木过程与区域物种水平的响应联系起来。 它将使用现有研究站点的数据以及构成新国家生态观测站网络核心的站点平台。这些数据将被集中综合并用于开发计算机模型，帮助确定何时何地预测气候对生物多样性的影响是一个合理的目标。这些模型还将揭示哪里可能会发生意外，并可以为个体树木的健康状况和对环境变化的脆弱性的预期提供反馈。 这项研究将首次预测森林生物多样性对气候变化的脆弱性，而气候变化与最敏感的生物过程直接相关。 目标是提供对构成国家森林的树种的分布、生长、繁殖和死亡风险的预测。 这些预测将帮助科学家、森林管理者和政策制定者预测干旱加剧和生长季节延长的综合风险。 该项目期间开发的方法和结果将通过培训资源管理人员以及多所大学的研究生和博士后的研讨会进行传播。