RAPID: Representation of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and its Hydroclimate and Surface Temperature Links in Climate Simulations

RAPID：气候模拟中大西洋多年代变率及其水文气候和地表温度联系的表示

• 批准号: 1132259
• 负责人: Sumant Nigam
• 金额: $ 3万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-07-01 至 2013-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1132259&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Representation; Atlantic; Multidecadal; Variability

This is one of 16 Rapid Response (RAPID) projects funded as the result of a Dear Colleague Letter (NSF 11-006) encouraging diagnostic analyses of climate model simulations prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Research conducted in these projects is expected to lead to more detailed model intercomparisons, better understanding of robust model behaviors, and better understanding and quantification of uncertainty in future climate simulations.This project will analyze the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models with a focus on the representation of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) variability and its hydroclimate impacts. The AMO varies in phase on a timescale of 5-8 decades, and exerts considerable influence on North American hydroclimate, e.g. precipitation and droughts, surface air-temperature, and Atlantic hurricanes. Depending on its phase, the AMO impact can either offset or exacerbate the greenhouse gas forced warming signal over the continents in the Northern Hemisphere over a multidecadal period. Thus climate models undertaking decadal predictions and multidecadal projections cannot afford to misrepresent AMO variability. The broader impact of the project lies in its support of the IPCC AR5, which is intended to provide information on climate change and its consequences to decision makers worldwide. This project seeks in particular to evaluate the representation of the AMO in coupled climate models. Thus the research will lead to improved understanding of the role of multidecadal natural variability and secular change in the evolving climate of the 20th and 21st centuries. By providing a baseline on latest versions of the climate models, this study will directly address issues of model deficiencies on model credibility.

这是16个快速响应（快速）项目之一，这是由亲爱的同事信（NSF 11-006）资助的，鼓励了针对气候变化范围内的诊断模拟诊断分析，该诊断分析是气候变化的第五评估报告（IPCC AR5）。预计在这些项目中进行的研究将导致更详细的模型对比度，更好地理解强大的模型行为，并在未来的气候模拟中更好地理解和量化不确定性。该项目将以重点分析耦合模型对比项目（CMIP5）模型。关于大西洋多年代振荡（AMO）变异性及其氢气候影响的表示。 AMO在5 - 8年的时间表上的相变，对北美氢化气候产生了相当大的影响，例如降水量和干旱，表面气温和大西洋飓风。 根据其相位，AMO撞击可以抵消或加剧北半球在多年阶段的大陆上的温室气体强迫变暖信号。因此，进行际际预测和多年预测的气候模型无法负担歪曲AMO的可变性。 该项目的更广泛影响在于它支持IPCC AR5，该项目旨在提供有关气候变化及其对全球决策者的影响的信息。 该项目特别寻求评估AMO在耦合气候模型中的表示。因此，这项研究将提高人们对20世纪和21世纪不断发展的气候中多年自然变异性和世俗变化的作用的理解。通过为气候模型的最新版本提供基线，本研究将直接解决模型信誉上的模型缺陷问题。