RAPID: Decadal Variability of the American Monsoons--An Assessment of CMIP5 Simulation

RAPID：美国季风的年代际变化--CMIP5模拟的评估

• 批准号: 1126804
• 负责人: Leila Carvalho
• 金额: $ 3万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Barbara
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-07-01 至 2013-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1126804&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Decadal; Variability; American; Monsoons; RAPID; Decadal; Variability; American; Monsoons

This is one of 16 Rapid Response (RAPID) projects funded as the result of a Dear Colleague Letter (NSF 11-006) encouraging diagnostic analyses of climate model simulations prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Research conducted in these projects is expected to lead to more detailed model intercomparisons, better understanding of robust model behaviors, and better understanding and quantification of uncertainty in future climate simulations.This project examines the simulation of the American Monsoon System (AMS) in simulations of the recent past from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project verson 5 (CMIP5). The main goals are to develop an extensive assessment of how realistic simulations are in representing the observed characteristics of the American Monsoon System (AMS) in the recent past, and to assess uncertainties in projected decadal climate changes in the AMS. More specifically, the project1) Assesses the skill of CMIP5 model simulations in representing the climatological and statistical characteristics of the monsoons in the Americas including: circulation and precipitation features, subseasonal variance, onsets and demises, amplitudes and cross equatorial transitions.2) Determines which CMIP5 models realistically represent the spatiotemporal variability of the monsoons in the present climate including near-term trends, frequency of very dry/wet seasons and statistical distributions of extreme precipitation events.3) Examines which CMIP5 models skillfully represent the observed relationships between remote forcings and the American monsoons. These include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Atlantic Ocean and Intra-Americas Sea forcings.4) Seeks to determine how much of the climate changes projected for the next decades in the Americas are explained by natural decadal variability and how much by greenhouse gases increases.The broader impact of the project lies in its support of the IPCC AR5, which is intended to provide information on climate change and its consequences to decision makers worldwide. The AMS affects water resources, agriculture, human health, ecosystems and biodiversity throughout a large and densely populated portion of the Americas. The impact of climate change on the AMS is not known, and this research will help to determine the extent to which models used to project climate change are capable of accurately representing the AMS system and its variability and change over the observed record.

这是16个快速响应（快速）项目之一，这是由亲爱的同事信（NSF 11-006）资助的，鼓励了针对气候变化范围内的诊断模拟诊断分析，该诊断分析是气候变化的第五评估报告（IPCC AR5）。预计在这些项目中进行的研究将导致更详细的模型对比度，更好地理解可靠的模型行为，并在未来气候模拟中更好地理解和对不确定性的理解和数量。本项目研究了美国季风系统（AMS）的模拟，该模拟在最近的仿真中，来自气候模型Promoce Projemparion Projects Project verson 5（CMIP5）。主要目标是对最近代表美国季风系统（AMS）在最近的过去的特征进行现实模拟的广泛评估，并评估AMS预计际气候变化的不确定性。更具体地说，项目1）评估CMIP5模型模拟在表示美洲季风的公民和统计特征方面的技能极端降水事件的统计分布。3）研究CMIP5模型巧妙地代表了远程强迫与美国季风之间观察到的关系。其中包括Madden-ulian振荡（MJO），厄尔尼诺/南部振荡（ENSO），北大西洋振荡（NAO），太平洋际际振荡（PDO），南极振荡（AAO），大西洋大西洋和内部大西洋河内的探索。通过自然际变异性以及温室气体的数量增加。该项目的更广泛影响在于它支持IPCC AR5，旨在提供有关气候变化及其对全球决策者的影响的信息。 AMS在整个美洲的大部分地区都会影响水资源，农业，人类健康，生态系统和生物多样性。气候变化对AMS的影响尚不清楚，这项研究将有助于确定用于投影气候变化的模型的程度，能够准确地代表AMS系统及其在观察到的记录上的可变性和变化。