CNH: Institutional Dynamics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Longitudinal Analysis of Snowmelt-Dependent Agricultural Systems

CNH：适应气候变化的制度动态：依赖融雪的农业系统的纵向分析

• 批准号: 1115009
• 负责人: Tom Evans
• 金额: $ 120万
• 依托单位: Indiana University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-09-01 至 2016-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1115009&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Institutional; Dynamics; Adaptation; Climate

Global withdrawals of water have doubled over the past 40 years as irrigated agricultural land expanded from 138 million ha to 277 million hectares during the period from 1961 to 2003. Irrigated land is responsible for more than 85 percent of global consumptive water use, producing approximately 45 percent of the global food supply on only 20 percent of global cropland. The combination of the increasing use of irrigation in agricultural production and the importance of snowmelt in many agricultural areas has led to a situation where more than one-sixth of the world's population relies on glaciers and seasonal snow packs as their primary source of streamflow. Climate change processes are projected to impact the amount of snowfall and the seasonality of discharge around the globe. Temperature effects of climate change alone will be sufficient to alter both snowpack accumulation and snowmelt dynamics of many agricultural systems. While additional climate change impacts on growing season rainfall, streamflow, and drought could serve to either exacerbate or mitigate shifts in snowmelt climatology on water available for crops, the dependence on snowmelt and irrigation in many agricultural systems may reduce their ability to respond to future changes. Of additional concern is the fact that many temperate and tropical agricultural areas dependent on glacial meltwater are now facing the threat of complete glacier loss, making climate changes in these regions potentially more disruptive than in areas where only seasonal snowmelt is used as a water resource. In the face of water shortages, governance institutions established to allocate water may be disrupted and forced to change. Critical tensions exist between the potential impacts of climate change and existing and future patterns of water use in regions highly dependent on glacier-fed streamflow for agricultural irrigation. This interdisciplinary research project will examine how human populations will be impacted by these changes and the capacity of users in glacier-irrigated agricultural systems to adapt. The investigators will examine semi-arid agricultural systems that are dependent on snowmelt located across strongly contrasting institutional and hydrological settings in eastern Kenya and the western United States. They will integrate information gathered from focus groups, water-user interviews, field hydrological measurements, role-playing games, and scenario-based models of potential climate change impacts to assess community vulnerability to climate variability and understand how communities might respond to changes in water availability in the future. They will address interactions among human actors, the physical and social capital they construct and maintain, and the dynamics of water availability and allocation across spatial scales.This project will have significant implications for the governance of water resources and how communities and households cope with water scarcity. The empirical analysis of past and present water governance will support the development of scenario-based models of potential climate change impacts to assess community vulnerability to climate variability and to understand how communities might respond to changes in water availability in the future. Findings from this project will be of value to policy makers who are seeking more nuanced policy responses than simple "one size fits all" solutions. Many policy analysts recommend one-type of governance, such as government or private ownership, as being "ideal" to cope with threats to ecological systems. This research will develop new knowledge about the ways in which institutional diversity can contribute to the effective management of water resources. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.

在过去的40年中，全球水的拔出增加了一倍，因为从1961年到2003年期间，灌溉农业土地从1.38亿公顷增加到2.77亿公顷。灌溉土地造成了全球消费用水的85％以上，只能在全球造物群的20％的全球食品供应中产生约45％的全球食品供应。 在许多农业地区，灌溉在农业生产中的越来越多以及融雪的重要性的结合导致了这种情况，在这种情况下，世界上超过六分之一的人口依赖冰川和季节性的雪包作为其主要水流的来源。 预计气候变化过程会影响全球降雪量和排放的季节性。 仅气候变化的温度影响就足以改变许多农业系统的积雪积累和融雪动态。 尽管额外的气候变化对生长季节的降雨，水流和干旱的影响可能会加剧或减轻融雪的气候在可用于农作物的水上的变化，但许多农业系统中对融雪和灌溉的依赖可能会降低其对未来变化的反应能力。 另一个事实是，许多依赖冰川融化的温带和热带农业地区正面临着完全冰川损失的威胁，使这些地区的气候变化可能比仅将季节性积雪用作水资源的地区更具破坏性。 面对水短缺，建立用于分配水的治理机构可能会被破坏并被迫改变。 气候变化的潜在影响与现有和将来的用水模式之间存在着关键的紧张关系，高度依赖于冰川喂养的水流进行农业灌溉。 这个跨学科研究项目将研究这些变化的人口将如何影响冰川灌溉的农业系统中的用户的能力。 调查人员将检查依赖于位于肯尼亚东部和美国西部强烈对比的机构和水文环境中的融雪的半干旱农业系统。 他们将整合从焦点小组，用水访谈，现场水文测量，角色扮演游戏以及基于场景的潜在气候变化影响的模型中收集的信息，以评估社区对气候变异性的脆弱性，并了解社区如何对未来水的供应变化做出反应。 他们将解决人类参与者之间的互动，他们建造和维护的物理和社会资本，以及跨空间尺度的水的可用性和分配动态。该项目将对水资源的治理以及社区和家庭如何应对水的稀缺性具有重大影响。 对过去和现在的水治理的经验分析将支持基于场景的潜在气候变化影响的模型的发展，以评估社区对气候变异性的脆弱性，并了解社区如何应对将来的水可用性变化。 该项目的调查结果对寻求更细微的政策响应的政策制定者比简单的“一件尺寸适合所有”解决方案具有价值。许多政策分析师建议政府或私有制等一种治理，以应对对生态系统的威胁的“理想”。 这项研究将发展有关机构多样性可以有效管理水资源的方式的新知识。 该项目得到了耦合自然和人类系统（CNH）计划的NSF动力学支持。

项目成果

Causes and Consequences of Local Government Efforts to Reduce Risk and Adapt to Extreme Weather Events: Municipal Organizational Robustness

• DOI: 10.3390/su13147980
• 发表时间: 2021-07
• 期刊: Sustainability
• 影响因子: 3.9
• 作者: P. Valdivieso;Pablo Neudorfer;Krister P. Andersson