Collaborative Research: Investigating the Zonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation Changes under Global Warming and the Linkage to the Hydrological Response and Extremes

合作研究：调查全球变暖下的纬向平均大气环流变化及其与水文响应和极端事件的联系

• 批准号: 1064079
• 负责人: Gang Chen
• 金额: $ 29.09万
• 依托单位: Cornell University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-05-01 至 2015-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1064079&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Investigating; Zonal; Mean

Under the climate forcing of the unabated growth of the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs), the global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle are bound to change. Despite the pivotal role of the atmospheric circulation in climate change and climate feedback, our understanding in its natural variability, its response to global warming forcing, and the associated impacts on the temporal and spatial distributions of the precipitation remains limited, due in part to the diversity of the background wind configurations throughout the annual cycle.This project aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of the sensitivities and mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation response to GHG warming forcing throughout the annual cycle, and to link the circulation changes to the changes in the mean and extremes of precipitation. The investigators will combine purposefully designed sensitivity experiments using a hierarchy of atmospheric models with analyzing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations, a new set of ultra-high resolution climate simulations and the existent observations and reanalysis. They will revolve around three inter-related scientific themes: (1) sensitivities and mechanisms of the mean circulation responses to global warming forcing under different circulation regimes (corresponding to different seasons and different sectors of the globe); (2) the leading mode of variability under different circulation regimes and the linkage between the unforced intrinsic mode of variability to the mean response to global warming forcing; (3) connection between the leading mode of variability, as occurs naturally or as a result of climate change forcing, and precipitation extreme fingerprint. This work will improve our understanding of (1) characteristics of atmospheric circulation and the relationship between the mean and the leading mode of variability; (2) the seasonal dependence in the response of the circulation over different sectors of the globe; (3) mechanism-based interpretation of the response of hydrological cycle and its extremes to GHG warming. Broader impacts encompass the following aspects: (1) The confidence gained in regional hydrological projection is valuable to water resource management and water policy making; (2) Several graduate and undergraduate students from two institutions will be trained and extensively involved; (3) Modeling outputs from this project will be archived in the "community-oriented" High Performance Storage System (HPSS) archive service system at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to facilitate the sharing of the data to broader scientific communities.

在温室气体浓度不断增长的气候强迫下，全球大气环流和水文循环势必发生变化。尽管大气环流在气候变化和气候反馈中发挥着关键作用，但我们对其自然变率、其对全球变暖强迫的响应以及对降水时空分布的相关影响的了解仍然有限，部分原因是整个年度循环中背景风配置的多样性。该项目旨在全面了解整个年度循环中大气环流对温室气体变暖强迫的敏感性和机制，并将环流变化与平均变化联系起来和极端降水。研究人员将使用大气模型层次结构专门设计的敏感性实验与分析政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）耦合模型比对项目第五阶段（CMIP5）模型模拟​​、一套新的超高分辨率气候模拟和现有的气候模拟相结合。观察和重新分析。它们将围绕三个相互关联的科学主题：（1）不同环流机制（对应于全球不同季节和不同地区）下平均环流对全球变暖强迫响应的敏感性和机制； (2) 不同环流状况下的主导变率模式以及非受迫内在变率模式与对全球变暖强迫的平均响应之间的联系； (3) 自然发生或由于气候变化强迫而发生的主要变率模式与降水极端指纹之间的联系。 这项工作将提高我们对（1）大气环流特征以及平均变率与主导模态之间关系的理解； (2) 全球不同地区的环流响应的季节依赖性； (3)水文循环及其极值对温室气体变暖响应的机制解释。更广泛的影响包括以下几个方面： (1) 区域水文预测中获得的信心对于水资源管理和水政策制定具有重要意义； （2）培养并广泛参与两个机构的多名研究生和本科生； （3）本项目的模拟成果将归档在国家大气研究中心（NCAR）“面向社区”的高性能存储系统（HPSS）档案服务系统中，以方便数据向更广泛的科学界共享。