Collaborative Research: Investigating the Zonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation Changes under Global Warming and the Linkage to the Hydrological Response and Extremes

合作研究：调查全球变暖下的纬向平均大气环流变化及其与水文响应和极端事件的联系

• 批准号: 1064079
• 负责人: Gang Chen
• 金额: $ 29.09万
• 依托单位: Cornell University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-05-01 至 2015-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1064079&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Investigating; Zonal; Mean

Under the climate forcing of the unabated growth of the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs), the global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle are bound to change. Despite the pivotal role of the atmospheric circulation in climate change and climate feedback, our understanding in its natural variability, its response to global warming forcing, and the associated impacts on the temporal and spatial distributions of the precipitation remains limited, due in part to the diversity of the background wind configurations throughout the annual cycle.This project aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of the sensitivities and mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation response to GHG warming forcing throughout the annual cycle, and to link the circulation changes to the changes in the mean and extremes of precipitation. The investigators will combine purposefully designed sensitivity experiments using a hierarchy of atmospheric models with analyzing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations, a new set of ultra-high resolution climate simulations and the existent observations and reanalysis. They will revolve around three inter-related scientific themes: (1) sensitivities and mechanisms of the mean circulation responses to global warming forcing under different circulation regimes (corresponding to different seasons and different sectors of the globe); (2) the leading mode of variability under different circulation regimes and the linkage between the unforced intrinsic mode of variability to the mean response to global warming forcing; (3) connection between the leading mode of variability, as occurs naturally or as a result of climate change forcing, and precipitation extreme fingerprint. This work will improve our understanding of (1) characteristics of atmospheric circulation and the relationship between the mean and the leading mode of variability; (2) the seasonal dependence in the response of the circulation over different sectors of the globe; (3) mechanism-based interpretation of the response of hydrological cycle and its extremes to GHG warming. Broader impacts encompass the following aspects: (1) The confidence gained in regional hydrological projection is valuable to water resource management and water policy making; (2) Several graduate and undergraduate students from two institutions will be trained and extensively involved; (3) Modeling outputs from this project will be archived in the "community-oriented" High Performance Storage System (HPSS) archive service system at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to facilitate the sharing of the data to broader scientific communities.

在气候强迫温室气体浓度（GHG）浓度不足的情况下，全球大气循环和水文循环必定会发生变化。尽管大气循环在气候变化和气候反馈中的关键作用，但我们对自然可变性的理解，对全球变暖强迫的反应以及对降水的时间和空间分布的相关影响仍然有限，部分归因于整个年度范围内的背景风格的多样性。年度周期，并将循环变化与降水的平均值和极端变化联系起来。研究人员将使用大气模型的层次结构进行有目的设计的灵敏度实验，并分析气候变化的政府间小组（IPCC）耦合模型对比图案阶段5（CMIP5）模型模型模拟，新的超高分辨率气候模拟和现有的obsentent obsestivation和Reanalsisy。他们将围绕三个相互关联的科学主题旋转：（1）在不同的循环方面（对应于不同季节和全球不同部门），对全球变暖强迫的平均循环反应的敏感性和机制； （2）不同循环制度下的可变性模式以及对全球变暖强迫的平均响应的未强制内在变异模式之间的联系； （3）自然或由于气候变化强迫和降水极端指纹而自然发生的变异模式之间的联系。 这项工作将提高我们对（1）大气循环特征以及均值与领先变异模式之间的关系； （2）季节性的依赖性对循环反应的季节性依赖性； （3）基于机制的水文循环响应及其对温室气体变暖的响应的解释。更广泛的影响包括以下方面：（1）在区域水文预测中获得的信心对于水资源管理和水政策制定很有价值； （2）来自两个机构的几名研究生和本科生将接受培训和广泛参与； （3）该项目的建模输出将在国家大气研究中心（NCAR）的“面向社区”的高性能存储系统（HPSS）档案服务系统中存档，以促进将数据共享给更广泛的科学社区。