Collaborative Research: Coastal Geomorphic Consequences of Wave Climate Change

合作研究：波浪气候变化的沿海地貌后果

• 批准号: 1053113
• 负责人: Dylan McNamara
• 金额: $ 9.02万
• 依托单位: University of North Carolina at Wilmington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-09-15 至 2015-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1053113&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Coastal; Geomorphic; Consequences

Collaborative Research: Coastal Geomorphic Consequences Of Wave Climate Change Adams, McNamara, Moore, MurrayThe potential effects of sea-level rise, associated with global climate change, have been widely publicized. However, shoreline change is also influenced by changes in ocean storminess and the resulting deep-water wave field. Changes in the statistical distribution of heights, periods, and directions of storm-generated waves will affect wave-driven longshore sediment transport, driving rapid adjustment of coastline shape through shoreline retreat (erosion) in some places and shoreline advance (accretion) in others. The goal of this project is to improve our understanding of sandy coast shoreline response to a series of storm-climate-change scenarios over a range of shelf morphologies. The scope of this project can be summarized as a series of specific questions: How do variations in storminess interact with continental shelf bathymetry to reconfigure coastal planforms? What are the magnitudes and patterns of coastal morphologic responses that can be expected from the shifts in wave climate that have already occurred in recent decades? Can we already detect such responses? What large-scale shoreline configurations are most vulnerable to increased erosion in the future? This project will employ numerical modeling of wave transformation (shoaling and refraction) and longshore sediment transport to explore a range of wave climate and continental shelf scenarios. Previous numerical modeling efforts have aided our understanding of large-scale coastal evolution, but relied on simple assumptions regarding wave transformation. These simple assumptions may bring into question the degree to which previous model results can be related to actual coastlines. By incorporating more sophisticated numerical treatments of wave/shelf interactions, this project should provide improved accuracy in projections of locations and magnitudes of coastal erosion and accretion. Analysis of historical shoreline-change patterns will both evaluate how select coastlines might already be responding to changes in storm behaviors, and will test which combinations of model components best reproduce observations. Results will help evaluate the response of sensitive coastline types to scenarios of future storm and wave-climate changes.Global climate change may alter ocean wave conditions thereby leading to changes in coastline shapes. This research will address the impacts of wave climate change on patterns of coastal erosion for a wide range of continental shelves. By incorporating state-of-the-art wave models, which calculate how waves redistribute their energy as they approach shore, into a pre-existing computer model of shoreline-change, we will determine the types of coasts that are most likely to change severely for a range of possible climate scenarios. Historical shoreline-change information will be used to document coastal reconfiguration already in progress, and to evaluate computer model performance. Results of this project will help to inform residents, developers, policy makers, scientists, engineers, and other stakeholders as they make decisions about the management of coastal regions.

合作研究：波浪气候变化的沿海地貌后果 Adams、McNamara、Moore、Murray 海平面上升与全球气候变化相关的潜在影响已被广泛宣传。 然而，海岸线的变化也受到海洋风暴变化和由此产生的深水波浪场的影响。风暴产生的波浪的高度、周期和方向统计分布的变化会影响波浪驱动的沿岸沉积物输送，通过一些地方的海岸线后退（侵蚀）和另一些地方的海岸线前进（增生）来驱动海岸线形状的快速调整。 该项目的目标是提高我们对沙质海岸线对一系列陆架形态上的一系列风暴气候变化情景的响应的理解。 该项目的范围可以概括为一系列具体问题：暴风雨的变化如何与大陆架测深相互作用以重新配置沿海平面形态？近几十年来波浪气候的变化可以预测沿海形态反应的幅度和模式是什么？我们能检测到这样的反应吗？未来哪些大规模海岸线结构最容易受到侵蚀加剧？ 该项目将采用波浪变换（浅滩和折射）和沿岸沉积物输送的数值模拟来探索一系列波浪气候和大陆架情景。 以前的数值模拟工作有助于我们理解大规模海岸演化，但依赖于有关波浪变换的简单假设。 这些简单的假设可能会让人质疑先前模型结果与实际海岸线的相关程度。 通过对波浪/陆架相互作用进行更复杂的数值处理，该项目应提高海岸侵蚀和增生的位置和幅度的预测准确性。 对历史海岸线变化模式的分析将评估选定的海岸线可能如何响应风暴行为的变化，并将测试模型组件的哪些组合最能再现观测结果。 结果将有助于评估敏感海岸线类型对未来风暴和波浪气候变化情景的响应。全球气候变化可能会改变海浪条件，从而导致海岸线形状发生变化。 这项研究将解决波浪气候变化对大范围大陆架海岸侵蚀模式的影响。 通过将最先进的波浪模型（计算波浪接近海岸时如何重新分配能量）纳入预先存在的海岸线变化计算机模型中，我们将确定最有可能发生严重变化的海岸类型适用于一系列可能的气候情景。 历史海岸线变化信息将用于记录已经进行的海岸重新配置，并评估计算机模型的性能。 该项目的结果将有助于居民、开发商、政策制定者、科学家、工程师和其他利益相关者做出有关沿海地区管理的决策。