Type I - LOI#L02170258 - Collaborative Research: Assessing Decadal Climate Change Impacts on Urban Populations in the Southwestern USA

I 型 - LOI

• 批准号: 1049251
• 负责人: Benjamin Ruddell
• 金额: $ 75万
• 依托单位: Arizona State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-04-01 至 2015-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049251&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Type; LOI#L02170258; Collaborative; Research; Assessing

In the cities of the southwestern United States, regional warming combined with increasing urban populations and the resulting urban heat effect are straining limited supplies of electricity and water. Cities can be designed that are more resilient, minimizing human impacts and energy and water stresses, under scenarios of decadal warming trends. However, improved micro-scale climate models that resolve urban landscape hydrology, vegetation dynamics and patch-scale water and energy balances are needed to support the design of these resilient urban systems; funds are provided to create and validate a modeling system capable of resolving these dynamics. The tRIBS land surface hydrology model will be modified for urban environments and coupled with the vertically nested WRF 3.2 mesoscale and microclimate model. The combined model will be used to test the efficacy of different urban green-space and neighborhood designs under climate change scenarios with respect to the water and energy balance, demand for and optimal application of irrigation water, patch-scale air temperatures and humidities, and urban flooding responses. This newly coupled model will transform the design of urban neighborhoods to be quantifiably more adaptive and resilient to all types of decadal climate change. This study will demonstrate the technical feasibility, empirical validity, and computational tractability of this approach using neighborhoods in Phoenix, AZ as case studies. The microclimate predictions of the model will be useful to predict neighborhood-level human health and social impacts, water and energy use, urban heat island effects, and urban flooding, in neighborhoods in cities around the world. The potential social benefits of this research include a research tool that can empirically validate, quantitative design of urban neighborhoods that are more resilient to climate change and other future challenges (i.e. water or energy shortages), allows the optimization of neighborhoods that minimize water and energy use, mitigate heat island impacts, and improve social and health outcomes. This modeling tool can change cities by making them adaptive by design.

在美国西南部的城市中，区域变暖加上城市人口的增加以及由此产生的城市热效应的电力和水供应有限。可以设计城市更具弹性，最大程度地减少人类的影响，能量和水应力，在年代变暖趋势的情况下。但是，需要改进的微观气候模型来解决城市景观水文学，植被动力学以及斑块规模的水和能量平衡，以支持这些有韧性的城市系统的设计；提供资金来创建和验证能够解决这些动态的建模系统。部落的土地表面水文模型将用于城市环境，并与垂直嵌套的WRF 3.2中尺度和微气候模型相结合。合并的模型将用于测试不同城市绿色空间和气候变化方案下的邻里设计的功效城市洪水反应。这个新近耦合的模型将改变城市社区的设计，以更具适应性和有抵抗力对所有类型的际气候变化。这项研究将证明使用菲尼克斯（Phoenix）在AZ中作为案例研究的社区的技术可行性，经验有效性和计算障碍。该模型的微气候预测将有助于预测世界各地城市中社区的邻里水平的人类健康和社会影响，水和能源使用，城市热岛影响以及城市洪水。这项研究的潜在社会益处包括一种可以从经验上验证的研究工具，对城市社区的定量设计，这些城市社区对气候变化和其他未来挑战（即水或能源短缺）更具弹性使用，减轻热岛影响并改善社会和健康成果。这种建模工具可以通过设计来改变城市。