RAPID RESEARCH: Particle Trajectories in Volcanic Plumes: Tracking the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull Plume

快速研究：火山羽流中的粒子轨迹：追踪 2010 年埃亚菲亚德拉冰盖羽流

• 批准号: 1041775
• 负责人: Marcus Bursik
• 金额: $ 7.65万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Buffalo
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-06-01 至 2011-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1041775&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; RESEARCH; Particle; Trajectories; Volcanic; RAPID; RESEARCH; Particle; Trajectories; Volcanic

This RAPID (Rapid Response) project is a collaborative effort by scientists from University at Buffalo (UB), the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska - Fairbanks (UAF-GI) and University to make an attempt to model the ash dispersal due to the volcanic eruption at Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland, that has wreaked havoc on European aviation since ash emissions began on 14 April 2010. The advecting downwind plume is thought to be a serious hazard to aircraft, with potential for damage to jet engines and abrasion of airplane leading edges. The proposed work could have important ramifications for air traffic over the next months, as past Eyjafjallajokull eruptions have continued for over one year.It is proposed to use ensemble forecasting to develop probabilistic ash cloud maps at different times. More specifically, the 'Puff' simulation code will be used to hindcast the motion of the Eyjafjallajokull ash cloud through time beginning on 14 April 2010. Variability in the height and loading of the eruption column will be introduced through the column model Bent. Windfield data from several sources and with differing resolutions will be used. Output variability due to uncertain input parameters and initial conditions, and random forcing, will be determined. The output will be validated through comparison with satellite data. The principal scientific goals of this project are: to understand how uncertain input variables and random forcing affect the output of Puff simulations of the Eyjafjallajokull cloud, to validate output against satellite data, and to explore the possibility of producing improved assessments of ash cloud hazards. It is expected that the work will have implications for ash cloud tracking as well as probabilistic hazards assessment and ensemble forecasting.

This RAPID (Rapid Response) project is a collaborative effort by scientists from University at Buffalo (UB), the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska - Fairbanks (UAF-GI) and University to make an attempt to model the ash dispersal due to the volcanic eruption at Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland, that has wreaked havoc on European aviation since ash emissions began on 14 April 2010. The advecting downwind羽流被认为是对飞机的严重危害，可能会损坏喷气发动机和飞机领先边缘的磨损。拟议的工作可能会在接下来的几个月内对空中交通产生重要的影响，因为过去的Eyjafjallajokull爆发持续了一年以上。它建议使用合奏预测来在不同时间开发概率的灰云图。更具体地说，“ Puff”仿真代码将用于阻碍Eyjafjallajokull Ash灰云的运动，从2010年4月14日开始的时间。喷发柱的高度和加载列的可变性将通过列型模型弯曲引入。将使用来自多个来源和不同分辨率的Windfield数据。将确定由于不确定的输入参数和初始条件以及随机强迫而导致的输出变异性。该输出将通过与卫星数据进行比较来验证。该项目的主要科学目标是：了解不确定的输入变量和随机强迫如何影响Eyjafjallajokull云的泡芙模拟的输出，以验证对卫星数据的输出，并探索产生改进的灰云危害评估的可能性。 预计这项工作将对灰云跟踪以及概率危害评估和整体预测有影响。