African Monsoon Systems: Basic Dynamics and Applications to Interannual and Decadal Prediction

非洲季风系统：基本动力学及其在年际和年代际预测中的应用

• 批准号: 1036604
• 负责人: Kerry Cook
• 金额: $ 45.73万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-02-15 至 2016-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1036604&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: African; Monsoon; Systems; Basic; Dynamics

Research conducted in this project will address the basic dynamics of monsoon systems in Africa, focusing on West Africa, the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), and the influence of "cold surges" moving across North Africa from the Mediterranean. In West Africa, the research will focus on the role of inertial instability in producing the often abrupt "jump" of the monsoon rains from the Guinea coast to the Sahel. In the GHA, the focus is on understanding the relationship between rainfall distribution and Somali jet, a low-level air current which forms in two distinct stages with are associated with the onset of monsoon rains in their respective subregions. The cold surges are important for rains in the Sahel, as they appear to be linked to the occurrence of break periods during the monsoon season when the rains are suppressed. Much of the work is carried out with a regional climate system model, which is capable of representing the weather and climate of the region, the upper layer of the adjacent oceans, and the land surface and its vegetation. The research seeks to identify the relevant physical mechanisms in present-day climate, and additional experiments will explore the possible effects of anthropogenic global warming on the African monsoon systems.The broader impacts of the work lie in the potential for a better understanding of the dynamics of the African monsoon systems to lead to skill in predicting monsoon variations, and to anticipate the effects of global warming. The PI notes that the populations of the regions considered in this study are extremely vulnerable to climate variability and change, for reasons including food and water security, health risks, and political stability. The work would also support a graduate student, thereby helping to develop the scientific workforce of the future.

该项目进行的研究将介绍非洲季风系统的基本动态，重点是西非，大非洲大角（GHA）以及从地中海跨越北非移动的“冷潮”的影响。 在西非，这项研究将重点关注惯性不稳定在产生从几内亚海岸到萨赫勒的季风降雨常常突然“跳跃”的作用。 在GHA中，重点是理解降雨分布与索马里喷气机之间的关系，这是一种低级空气电流，在两个不同的阶段形成，与各自子区域的季风降雨开始有关。 冷潮对于萨赫勒的雨水很重要，因为它们似乎与降雨抑制季风季节期间的休息周期的发生有关。 大部分工作都是通过区域气候系统模型进行的，该模型能够代表该地区的天气和气候，相邻海洋的上层以及陆地表面及其植被。 该研究旨在确定当今气候下的相关物理机制，其他实验将探索人为的全球变暖对非洲季风系统的可能影响。该作品的更广泛影响在于，有可能更好地理解非洲季风系统的动态，从而在预测季风变异和预测全球变暖的效果方面有助于预测技巧。 PI指出，本研究中考虑的地区的种群极易受到气候变化和变化的影响，其原因包括粮食和水安全，健康风险和政治稳定。 这项工作还将支持研究生，从而帮助发展未来的科学劳动力。