An Empirical Investigation Into the Nature of Risk Preferences

对风险偏好本质的实证研究

• 批准号: 1031136
• 负责人: Levon Barseghyan
• 金额: $ 32.26万
• 依托单位: Cornell University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-09-01 至 2014-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1031136&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Empirical; Investigation; Into; Nature; Risk

The project studies the nature of households' risk preferences. It utilizes a new data set that documents the choices made by a sample of households with respect to auto, home, and umbrella insurance. The data also include the menus from which the households' make their choices, the households' claim histories, and a rich set of demographic information for each household.The project has two parts. The first part investigates the nature of risk preferences under the assumption that households' subjective beliefs about risk are correct. It initially examines the separate influences of "standard" risk aversion (concave utility over final wealth states), loss aversion, and nonlinear probability weighting on households' deductible choices in auto and home insurance. The first part also will investigate other determinants of households' risky choices, including ambiguity aversion, as well as other policy choices, such as limit choices under liability coverages, which involve large stakes.The second part of the project will examine households' subjective beliefs about risk. A household's risky choices are jointly determined by their preferences for risk and their subjective beliefs about risk. The project will seek to estimate the joint distribution of risk preferences and subjective beliefs. Although point identification generally will not be possible, the richness of the data will allow for partial identification.Broader Impact: The project has the potential to advance the understanding of household decision making under uncertainty and to help the scientific community further the development of the theory of choice under uncertainty. The acquisition of the data set presents the opportunity to gain new and important insights into the nature of households' risk preferences and the structure of their beliefs about risk.

该项目研究家庭风险偏好的性质。 它利用了一个新的数据集，该数据集记录了一个家庭对汽车，家庭和雨伞保险的选择。 数据还包括家庭做出选择，家庭声称历史的菜单以及每个家庭的大量人口统计信息。该项目有两个部分。 在家庭对风险的主观信念是正确的假设下，第一部分调查了风险偏好的性质。它最初检查了“标准”风险规避（对最终财富状况的凹面实用程序），损失厌恶和非线性概率加权对家庭自动和家庭保险的可扣除选择的单独影响。 第一部分还将调查家庭风险选择的其他决定因素，包括歧义厌恶，以及其他政策选择，例如涉及大量股份的限制选择。该项目的第二部分将研究家庭对风险的主观信念。家庭的风险选择是由他们对风险的偏好及其对风险的主观信念共同决定的。 该项目将寻求估计风险偏好和主观信念的共同分布。 尽管通常不可能进行点识别，但数据的丰富性将允许部分识别。BROADER的影响：该项目有可能提高对不确定性下的家庭决策的理解，并帮助科学界进一步发展不确定性理论。数据集的获取为获得有关家庭风险偏好的本质以及其对风险的信念的结构的新重要见解提供了机会。