Geoinformatics: A Petascale Cyberfacility for Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Analysis (SCEC PetaSHA3 Project)

地理信息学：用于基于物理的地震灾害分析的 Petascale 网络设施（SCEC PetaSHA3 项目）

• 批准号: 0949443
• 负责人: Thomas Jordan
• 金额: $ 167.5万
• 依托单位: University of Southern California
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-07-15 至 2013-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0949443&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Geoinformatics; Petascale; Cyberfacility; Physics; Based

The SCEC PetaSHA3 project will develop computational models of system-level earthquake processes and, running these models on NSF supercomputers, derive more accurate estimates of the strong ground motion expected from future earthquakes in California. SCEC?s CyberShake computational platform recently produced the first physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the Los Angeles region?a major scientific innovation of the PetaSHA2 project and a breakthrough in workflow-managed, high-capacity computing (50-day continuous run on 4000 processors of the TACC Ranger supercomputer). SCEC will implement CyberShake on the largest NSF supercomputers, including Blue Waters, with the goal of calculating high-resolution, high-frequency PSHA maps for the entire State of California in the next two years. This will require validation against very large data sets and a hundredfold increase in computational efficiency.The project will use the CyberShake platform to represent time-dependent seismic hazard for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). The goal of OEF is to provide authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The first OEF model for California (UCERF3) is now being developed by SCEC, USGS and CGS under a contract with the California Earthquake Authority. By coupling UCERF3 into the CyberShake system, the project will produce PSHA maps that show how seismic hazards are changing on a daily basis?i.e., it will extend CyberShake from the mapping of long-term hazard (seismic climate) to short-term hazard (seismic weather)?an entirely new capability not possible using conventional PSHA techniques. If successful, these developments are expected to have substantial impacts on seismic engineering, insurance rate-setting and reinsurance strategies, and earthquake preparedness activities, as well as basic research on earthquake predictability.

SCEC PetaSHA3 项目将开发系统级地震过程的计算模型，并在 NSF 超级计算机上运行这些模型，对加利福尼亚州未来地震预计产生的强烈地面运动进行更准确的估计。 SCEC 的 Cyber​​Shake 计算平台最近为洛杉矶地区生成了第一个基于物理的概率地震危险分析 (PSHA)，这是 PetaSHA2 项目的重大科学创新，也是工作流程管理的高容量计算（50 天）的突破在 TACC Ranger 超级计算机的 4000 个处理器上连续运行）。 SCEC 将在包括 Blue Waters 在内的最大的 NSF 超级计算机上实施 Cyber​​Shake，目标是在未来两年内计算整个加利福尼亚州的高分辨率、高频 PSHA 地图。这需要针对非常大的数据集进行验证，并将计算效率提高一百倍。该项目将使用 Cyber​​Shake 平台来表示业务地震预报 (OEF) 中与时间相关的地震危险。 OEF 的目标是提供有关地震灾害的时间依赖性的权威信息，以帮助社区为潜在的破坏性地震做好准备。 SCEC、USGS 和 CGS 目前正在根据与加州地震局的合同开发加州第一个 OEF 模型 (UCERF3)。通过将 UCERF3 耦合到 Cyber​​Shake 系统中，该项目将生成显示地震灾害每天如何变化的 PSHA 地图？即将 Cyber​​Shake 从长期灾害（地震气候）绘制扩展到短期灾害（地震天气）？这是一种使用传统 PSHA 技术无法实现的全新功能。 如果成功，这些进展预计将对地震工程、保险费率制定和再保险策略、防震活动以及地震可预测性的基础研究产生重大影响。