Assessing the Impact of Parameterized Gravity Wave Drag on Climate Change Forecasts: A Systematic Investigation with Global Circulation Models

评估参数化重力波阻力对气候变化预测的影响：全球环流模型的系统研究

• 批准号: 0938325
• 负责人: Edwin Gerber
• 金额: $ 37.59万
• 依托单位: New York University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-01-01 至 2013-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0938325&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Assessing; Impact; Parameterized; Gravity; Wave

This project seeks to understand and quantify the uncertainty associated with gravity wave drag (GWD) parameterization in climate models, particularly for climate change forecasts. Gravity waves influence the global circulation of the atmosphere by transporting momentum between and within the troposphere and stratosphere, but are too small to be adequately resolved in state-of-the-art climate models. Hence their effects are estimated, or parameterized, based on the resolved variables of the model. Recent studies have demonstrated that uncertainty in how GWD is parameterized has a first order impact on both the tropospheric and stratospheric response to anthropogenic forcing. Existing studies of parameterizations, largely performed "offline" with fixed background winds, are insufficient to quantify these uncertainties, as the impact of GWD is amplified by interaction with synoptic and planetary waves. To redress these concerns, the investigators will establish a framework for testing GWD parameterizations in an idealized general circulation model (GCM).The idealized GCM captures the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation with fidelity, but with computational efficiency that permits us to systematically assess the impact of GWD parameters on a changing climate, driven both by trends in the troposphere (i.e. tropical upper tropospheric warming) and stratosphere (i.e. the cooling/heating of the polar vortex associated with ozone loss/recovery). The investigators will use the model to understand the influence of GWD on (1) trends in the tropospheric circulation, in particular shifts in the extratropical jet streams, (2) trends in the stratospheric circulation, in particular the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, and (3) stratospheric climate and variability.The broader impacts of the research are (1) to help improve understanding and confidence in climate change forecasts, (2) to educate and mentor students at the undergraduate and graduate level, and (3) to provide a more general understanding of climate forecasting. The inherent uncertainty in climate prediction is a significant problem for the scientific community in communicating with the public. This project provides a case study in how models (in particular GCMs) can be used to quantify uncertainty, and used for outreach directed at undergraduate students.

该项目试图在气候模型中理解和量化与重力波阻力（GWD）参数化相关的不确定性，尤其是对于气候变化预测。重力波通过在对流层和平流层之间和内部运输动量来影响大气的全球循环，但太小，无法在最新的气候模型中充分解决。因此，根据模型的分辨变量，它们的效果估计或参数化。最近的研究表明，GWD如何被参数化的不确定性对对流层和平流层对人为强迫的反应都有一阶影响。现有的参数化研究（在很大程度上与固定的背景风离线进行了，都不足以量化这些不确定性，因为GWD的影响通过与概要和行星波的相互作用扩大。为了纠正这些关注，研究人员将建立一个在理想化的通用循环模型（GCM）中测试GWD参数化的框架。理想化的GCM捕获具有忠诚度的平流层和对流层循环，但具有计算效率，但具有允许我们系统地评估GWD参数对GWD的影响的趋势，这使我们能够系统地评估gwd的影响。变暖）和平流层（即与臭氧损失/恢复相关的极性涡流的冷却/加热）。研究人员将使用该模型来了解GWD对对流层循环的影响，特别是在热带喷射流中的变化，（2）平流层循环的趋势，酿酒师 - 托布森循环，尤其是（3）平流层气候和变化的较广泛的研究和置信度（1），（1）构成了（1）的影响（1）（1）在本科和研究生层面的指导学生，以及（3）对气候预测有更一般的了解。气候预测中固有的不确定性是科学界与公众交流的重要问题。该项目提供了一个案例研究，该案例研究（特别是GCM）如何用于量化不确定性，并用于针对本科生的外展。