NSWP: An Analysis of Space Weather's Impact on Electricity Flows, Power Grid Operations, and Electricity Markets

NSWP：空间天气对电力流动、电网运营和电力市场影响的分析

• 批准号: 0921964
• 负责人: Kevin Forbes
• 金额: $ 41.59万
• 依托单位: Catholic University of America
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0921964&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NSWP; Analysis; Space; Weather; Impact

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5)The primary purpose of this project is to use multivariate methods to econometrically estimate the extent to which ground-induced currents (GICs) contribute to Loop flows. Loop flows are unscheduled electricity flows or inadvertent flows that represent the difference between scheduled flows and actual electricity flows. These flows are ubiquitous in alternating current transmission systems, frequently large in magnitude, and have adverse consequences on power grid operations. Thus far they have been difficult to predict. While many power grid system operators believe that their systems are only rarely affected by space weather, they may be concerned on an almost daily basis about Loop flows. Previous funded research by the PI presented evidence that GIC levels and various measures of electricity grid conditions are statistically related; in particular, a statistical relationship was found between a proxy GIC index and unscheduled levels of electricity flows between power grids. This project will investigate the hypothesis that GIC induced transmission losses and transmission constraints contribute to Loop flows by altering the path of least resistance. The longer range goal is to estimate econometric equations that could forecast Loop flows based on forecasts of space weather, terrestrial weather, and the scheduled level of grid activity. Nonloop flow issues will also be examined econometrically. The project will lead to better understanding of the contributions of space weather and terrestrial weather to loop flows, enabling power operators and policy makers to more efficiently manage power grids which may have significant economic benefits. The project may lead to further investigations and collaborations between multi-disciplinary teams such as space scientists, engineers, and economists.

该奖项是根据2009年的《美国复苏与再投资法》（公法111-5）资助的，该项目的主要目的是使用多元方法来估计地面诱导的电流（GIC）有助于循环流。循环流是不习惯的电流或无意的流量，代表了计划流和实际电流之间的差异。这些流在交替的电流传输系统中无处不在，通常幅度很大，并且对电网操作产生不利的后果。 到目前为止，他们很难预测。 尽管许多电网系统运营商认为他们的系统很少受到太空天气的影响，但他们几乎每天都会关注循环流。 PI先前的资助研究提供了证据，表明GIC水平和各种电网格条件的度量在统计上相关。特别是，在电网之间的代理GIC指数与外电流的外电流水平之间发现了统计关系。该项目将调查GIC诱导的传输损失和传输约束的假设，从而通过改变电阻最小的路径有助于循环流动。 较长的目标是估计可以根据太空天气，地面天气和预定的电网活动水平来预测循环流的计量经济方程。非环路问题也将经济学检查。该项目将更好地了解太空天气和地面天气对循环流动的贡献，使电力运营商和政策制定者能够更有效地管理可能具有重大经济利益的电网。 该项目可能会导致在太空科学家，工程师和经济学家等跨学科团队之间进行进一步的调查和合作。