Collaborative Research: Communicating Hurricane Information to Local Officials for Protective Action Decision Making

合作研究：向地方官员传达飓风信息以制定保护行动决策

• 批准号: 0838639
• 负责人: Donald House
• 金额: $ 16.5万
• 依托单位: Clemson University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-02-15 至 2013-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0838639&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Communicating; Hurricane; Information

The past 30 years have seen major advances in many aspects of hurricane forecasting, but there has been little systematic research on the way coastal populations interpret the weather information that is communicated to them. To date, most evaluations of hurricane information have comprised reaction criteria (asking whether potential users like a display) rather than learning (testing whether users understand a display) or performance (whether a display changes users? decisions) criteria. However, there is a growing body of anecdotal evidence that many people misunderstand the displays meteorologists are providing. To better understand how people interpret hurricane forecasts and the uncertainties in those forecasts, this research will systematically examine the cognitive processes involved in hurricane tracking by conducting an evaluation of existing and novel hurricane information displays. The first task will assess the ways in which users interpret three basic elements of storm track information?the trailing track (where the storm has been), the forecast track (where it is most likely to go), and track uncertainty (how likely it is to deviate from the forecast track). Participants in different experimental conditions will observe simulated hurricanes described by these three basic elements. Some participants will be given information about only one basic element (e.g., forecast track only), others will be given information about two basic elements in combination (e.g., forecast track and uncertainty cone), and some will be given information about all three basic elements. By comparing participants in these information conditions, the research team will be able to gain insight into how each of the three basic elements affects people?s expectations about storm tracks over time. The second task will focus on the third basic element of hurricane track information (track uncertainty) by comparing a conventional uncertainty cone with five alternative track uncertainty displays?numeric probabilities, color-coded probabilities, terrain coded probabilities, arrow glyphs, and dynamic tracks. Comparing the data from these six information conditions will allow us to determine if any of the alternative displays provides a better way of conveying track uncertainty. Finally, the third task will use the findings from the first two tasks to design and evaluate new ways of visualizing storm information. The proposed research will provide a rigorous assessment of the cognitive processes involved in hurricane tracking. Accordingly, it has implications for the cognitive psychology (especially judgment and decision making) of complex dynamic tasks. In addition, the project will have implications for instruction because there is very little research that addresses the problems of training adults to perform rarely performed, but critical, judgment tasks such as hurricane tracking. The project will provide meteorologists with a better understanding of the ways in which people interpret hurricane forecasts and the uncertainties in those forecasts. This improved understanding will allow them to communicate more effectively with coastal populations and reduce the probability that lives will be lost in hurricanes that deviate from their forecast tracks.

在过去的30年中，在飓风预测的许多方面都取得了重大进展，但是关于沿海人口解释与他们传达的天气信息的方式的系统研究很少。迄今为止，大多数对飓风信息的评估都包括反应标准（询问潜在用户喜欢显示）而不是学习（测试用户了解显示器）或性能（显示器是否更改用户？决策）标准。但是，越来越多的轶事证据表明，许多人误解了气象学家所提供的展示。为了更好地了解人们如何解释飓风预测和这些预测中的不确定性，这项研究将通过对现有和新颖的飓风信息显示的评估来系统地检查飓风跟踪中涉及的认知过程。第一个任务将评估用户解释风暴轨道信息的三个基本要素的方式？尾条（风暴已经在哪里），预测轨道（最有可能去的地方）以及跟踪不确定性（偏离预测轨道的可能性）。在不同实验条件下的参与者将观察到这三个基本要素所描述的模拟飓风。一些参与者将仅获得有关一个​​基本元素（例如，仅预测轨道）的信息，其他参与者将获得有关两个基本元素组合的信息（例如，预测轨道和不确定性锥体），其中有些将获得有关所有三个基本元素的信息。通过比较在这些信息条件下的参与者，研究团队将能够深入了解这三个基本要素中的每个要素如何影响人们对风暴轨迹的期望。第二个任务将通过将常规不确定性锥与五个替代轨道不确定性显示？数字概率，颜色编码概率，地形编码概率，箭头射镜和动态轨道进行比较，将重点关注飓风轨道信息的第三个基本要素（轨道不确定性）。比较这六个信息条件的数据将使我们能够确定任何替代显示是否提供了一种更好的方式来传达轨道不确定性。最后，第三个任务将使用前两个任务的发现来设计和评估新的风暴信息的方式。拟议的研究将对飓风跟踪所涉及的认知过程进行严格的评估。因此，它对复杂的动态任务的认知心理学（尤其是判断力和决策）具有影响。此外，该项目将对教学产生影响，因为很少有研究解决了培训成年人以执行少数执行但至关重要的判断任务（例如飓风跟踪）的问题。该项目将为气象学家提供更好地理解人们解释飓风预测和这些预测中不确定性的方式。这种提高的理解将使他们能够与沿海人口更有效地进行沟通，并减少飓风中偏离预测轨道的生命的可能性。