Improving Risk Assessment in Aviation: Information Seeking, Planning, and Judgment

改进航空风险评估：信息查找、规划和判断

基本信息

批准号：
0819840
负责人：
Wai-Tat Fu
金额：
$ 25.2万
依托单位：
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2008
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2008-09-01 至 2011-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0819840&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Improving Risk Assessment Aviation Information

项目摘要

Previous research on risk assessment has largely focused on static environments in which the decision maker is usually given full information to judge the level of risks involved. Research conducted under this award will extend previous research to study risk assessments by licensed pilots during pre-flight and in-flight planning, in which the pilots have to continuously look for and integrate multiple sources of information (such as weather, air traffic, and terrains) to assess risks in a highly dynamic environment. Specifically, the project will study three major classes of activities involved in pilot risk assessments: (1) information-seeking, (2) information integration during flight planning, and (3) risk assessments of different flight paths. Detailed behavioral data will be collected from a high-fidelity flight simulator. The data will be analyzed based on the theoretical framework that assumes two distinct systems of decision making: A rational system that exerts explicit top-down guidance on actions, and an experiential system that is capable of associating external environmental cues to past history of rewards and punishments. This theoretical framework will help to understand how background knowledge and skills are related to different patterns of information-seeking behavior and risk assessments in dynamic environments. The research should produce new knowledge with practical implications for training methods that improve risk assessments in dynamic environments.

先前对风险评估的研究主要集中在静态环境上，在静态环境中，决策者通常获得完整的信息来判断所涉及的风险水平。根据该奖项进行的研究将把先前的研究扩展到在飞行前和机上计划期间的许可飞行员研究的风险评估，在这些计划中，飞行员必须在其中不断寻找并整合多种信息来源（例如天气，空中交通和地形），以在高度动态的环境中评估风险。具体而言，该项目将研究试点风险评估中涉及的三个主要活动：（1）寻求信息，（2）飞行计划期间的信息集成以及（3）对不同飞行路径的风险评估。详细的行为数据将从高保真飞行模拟器中收集。将基于假定两个不同决策系统的理论框架进行分析数据：一个理性系统，对动作的自上而下指导以及能够将外部环境线索与过去的奖励和惩罚的历史相关联的经验系统。这个理论框架将有助于了解背景知识和技能如何与动态环境中的信息搜索行为和风险评估的不同模式相关。这项研究应产生新知识，对培训方法具有实际影响，以改善动态环境中的风险评估。