Collaborative Research:GLOBEC Pan-regional Synthesis: Pacific Ocean Boundary Ecosystems: response to natural and anthropogenic climate forcing

合作研究：GLOBEC泛区域综合：太平洋边界生态系统：对自然和人为气候强迫的响应

• 批准号: 0815025
• 负责人: Peter Franks
• 金额: $ 10.89万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego Scripps Inst of Oceanography
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-09-01 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0815025&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; GLOBEC; Pan; regional

Intellectual Merits: Large-scale decadal Pacific climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have been linked to changes across multiple trophic levels of marine ecosystems along the eastern and western boundaries. Recent studies of the Northeast Pacific show that other independent climate modes are equally important in explaining changes in coastal ocean upwelling and transport dynamics ? the fundamental processes controlling regional nutrient fluxes and planktonic ecosystem dynamics. This suggests that the interplay of forcing functions associated with multiple large-scale climate modes must be considered to adequately diagnose the dynamics and mechanics underlying variations in regional ecosystems. With this framework, this project combines extensive national and international in situ and satellite observations with numerical and statistical physical-biological models to diagnose the response of four Pacific boundary ecosystems to large-scale natural and anthropogenic climate forcing. The focus regions are: the Gulf of Alaska, the California Current System, the Peru-Chile Current System , and the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension region. This goal will be approached through four core research objectives. First, the extent to which, and by which mechanisms, large-scale climate modes (e.g. PDO, NPGO, ENSO, and others) drove coherent changes across Pacific boundary ecosystems over the period 1960-2007 will be investigated. Second, the investigators will quantify and explain how changes in regional ocean processes (e.g. upwelling, transport dynamics, mixing and mesoscale structure) at each boundary control phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics. Those results will be used to test the degree to which changes in each study region reflect bottom-up control of their respective ecosystems. Third, the extent to which changes in the statistics of shorter-period events (e.g. intra-seasonal oscillation, timing of spring transitions) during different phases of the longer-period climate modes (e.g. PDO, NPGO and others) determine the climate state of boundary-current ecosystems will be quantified. Finally, the range of uncertainties in the response of regional ocean dynamics and their ecosystems to climate change using forcing scenarios from selected climate model integrations that are part of the IPCC 2007 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report will be explored. This last objective will begin an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on regional ocean ecosystems, a topic poorly addressed in the latest IPCC report, but the chief instrument for most fisheries and coastal management. The success of these analyses relies on the diverse expertise of the investigators, which include physical biological observations, numerical regional ocean ecosystem modeling, statistical physical-biological modeling and IPCC coupled climate model projections. Broader Impacts: This project will provide an improved and unified understanding of low-frequency ecosystem dynamics in the economically vital eastern and western boundaries of the Pacific Ocean. It will also deliver new methodologies for assessing the uncertainties associated with regional climate change in marine ecosystems with direct implication for fisheries management and future assessment of the IPCC. The project team represents a close collaboration of academic and government scientists, and the research will be conducted with the support of international collaborators from South America, Japan and Canada. These collaborations will provide training for both international and US students through scientific exchanges, expanding the international network for both the US investigators and foreign collaborators. Four young PIs will be supported, including three female scientists, two of which have no previous NSF support or other sources of funding. Activities and results from this project will also extend to the undergraduate students through REU programs, and underserved high school students through the SMILE (Science and Math Investigative Learning Experiences) Program.

智力优点：大规模的十年太平洋气候指数，例如太平洋衰老振荡（PDO）与东部和西部边界沿线和西部边界的多个营养水平的海洋生态系统之间的变化有关。对东北太平洋的最新研究表明，其他独立的气候模式对于解释沿海海洋上升和运输动态的变化同样重要？控制区域营养通量和浮游生态系统动力学的基本过程。这表明必须考虑强迫与多个大规模气候模式相关的功能的相互作用，以充分诊断区域生态系统中的动力学和力学。通过此框架，该项目将广泛的国家和国际原地和卫星观测与数值和统计的物理生物学模型相结合，以诊断四个太平洋边界生态系统对大规模自然和人为气候强迫的反应。重点区域是：阿拉斯加湾，加利福尼亚当前系统，秘鲁 - 智利电流系统和黑鲁希奥 - 遮阳式扩展区。该目标将通过四个核心研究目标实现。首先，将研究1960 - 2007年期间，在太平洋边界生态系统中，大规模气候模式（例如PDO，NPGO，ENSO等）在多大程度上促进了整个太平洋边界生态系统的相干变化。其次，研究人员将量化和解释每个边界控制浮游植物和浮游动力学的区域海洋过程（例如上升流动，混合和中尺度结构）的变化。这些结果将用于测试每个研究区域的变化反映其各自生态系统的自下而上的程度。第三，在长期气候模式的不同阶段（例如PDO，NPGO等）的不同阶段，较短的周期事件统计量的变化（例如季节内振荡，春季过渡的时间）确定了边界现象生态系统的气候状态。最后，将探索将探讨区域海洋动力学及其生态系统对气候变化的响应中的不确定性范围，该场景将探索IPCC 2007的一部分（气候变化间批准面板）报告的一部分。最后一个目标将开始评估气候变化对区域海洋生态系统的潜在影响，这在最新的IPCC报告中涉及的话题很差，但大多数渔业和沿海管理层的主要工具。这些分析的成功取决于研究人员的多样化专业知识，包括物理生物学观察，数值区域海洋生态系统建模，统计物理生物学建模和IPCC耦合气候模型预测。更广泛的影响：该项目将提供对太平洋经济上至关重要的东部和西部边界的低频生态系统动态的改进和统一的理解。它还将提供新的方法，用于评估与海洋生态系统中地区气候变化相关的不确定性，对渔业管理和对IPCC的未来评估有直接影响。项目团队代表了学术和政府科学家的密切合作，该研究将在南美，日本和加拿大的国际合作者的支持下进行。这些合作将通过科学交流为国际和美国学生提供培训，从而扩大了美国调查人员和外国合作者的国际网络。将支持四个年轻的PI，其中包括三名女科学家，其中两名没有以前的NSF支持或其他资金来源。该项目的活动和结果还将通过REU计划扩展到本科生，并通过微笑（科学和数学调查学习经验）计划来扩展到服务不足的高中生。