Mathematics of Emissions Markets: Design, Models, Analysis and Simulations

排放市场数学：设计、模型、分析和模拟

• 批准号: 0806591
• 负责人: Rene Carmona
• 金额: $ 23.4万
• 依托单位: Princeton University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-07-01 至 2012-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0806591&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Mathematics; Emissions; Markets; Design; Models

The research project is motivated by problems in environmental economics concerning the use of market mechanisms to control green-house gas emissions. It concentrates on the design and the analysis of cap and trade schemes, and uses as starting point, the failure of the first phases of the California RECLAIM program and the European Union ETS to reduce emissions. Some of the technical issues raised by this research involve new mathematical models in environmental economics, very general competitive equilibrium problems, large scale stochastic control problems, and ill-posed inverse problems. They all lead to new mathematical challenges in optimization, especially in infinite dimensional spaces, parameter sensitivity analysis and robustness, and stochastic numerics, including multi-scale asymptotic approximations and Monte Carlo simulations. The work will contribute to the important role that mathematics has to play in major policy making decisions.The research that will be carried out with this award is designed to empower policy makers in designing emissions markets capable to meet emissions target while at the same time, reducing the overall social costs as well as the obscene windfall profits energy producers can make when markets are poorly designed. In the area of economics of global warming, where most of the models and large scale simulation programs are deterministic, there is still a strong resistance to the introduction of probabilistic thinking. Poor regulation and a lack of understanding of the stochasticity of the risks involved, have contributed to embarrassing public policy faux pas in previous emissions market designs. By developing new tools and strategies within the realm of stochastic analysis, and by showing how they can be brought to bear on the regulation of emissions markets, the results of this research will help educate the future scientists about what financial markets can and cannot do, and policy makers and regulators about what equilibrium models can explain and justify. By focusing on stochastic models which have traditionally remained off the radar screen of practitioners and policy makers, it will raise the level of awareness for the power of probabilistic modeling in a wide range of domains.

该研究项目是由环境经济学问题的促进，该问题涉及使用市场机制来控制绿色房屋气体排放。它集中于对CAP和贸易计划的设计和分析，并用作起点，加利福尼亚再回计划的第一阶段的失败以及欧盟ETS减少排放。这项研究提出的一些技术问题涉及环境经济学中的新数学模型，非常普遍的竞争均衡问题，大规模的随机控制问题以及不良的逆问题。它们都导致优化方面的新数学挑战，尤其是在无限的维空间，参数灵敏度分析和鲁棒性以及随机数字，包括多规模渐近近似近似和蒙特卡洛模拟。这项工作将有助于数学在重大政策制定决策中必须发挥的重要作用。该奖项将进行的研究旨在增强政策制定者在设计能够满足排放目标的排放市场的能力，同时降低了整体社会成本以及淫秽意识生产者在市场上的挑战，而在市场上可以赚取市场的贫困生产商。在全球变暖经济学领域，大多数模型和大规模仿真程序都是确定性的，仍然对引入概率思维的引入仍然具有很强的抵抗力。监管不佳，缺乏对所涉及风险的随机性的了解，这导致了以前的排放市场设计中令人尴尬的公共政策人造PA。通过在随机分析领域内开发新的工具和策略，并通过展示如何对排放市场的调节​​进行遵守，这项研究的结果将帮助教育未来的科学家有关金融市场可以和不能做什么，以及政策制定者和监管机构关于平衡模型可以解释和合理的。通过专注于传统上仍然是从业者和政策制定者雷达屏幕上的随机模型，它将提高人们对概率建模力量在广泛领域中的力量的认识水平。