Synoptic-Dynamic Studies of Atmospheric Predictability

大气可预测性的天气动力学研究

• 批准号: 0434189
• 负责人: Daniel Keyser
• 金额: $ 53.79万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Albany
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-11-01 至 2008-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0434189&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Synoptic; Dynamic; Studies; Atmospheric; Predictability

In this study, the investigators will address the problem of atmospheric predictability and forecast skill from a phenomenological perspective. Predictability will be analyzed and interpreted in terms of the ability of operational global numerical weather prediction models to forecast the evolution of high-impact weather systems, the large-scale flows in which these are embedded, and the transitions between large-scale flow systems that occur in conjunction with the evolution of selected weather systems. In samples taken from high-resolution ensemble forecasts, case studies for two types of interactions will be diagnosed: tropical-extratropical interactions and arctic-extratropical interactions. In particular, this research will address the physical aspects of the different evolution of ensemble members in the ensemble forecast system. Two graduate students will be involved in this project. The results of this research are expected to translate into improved long-term outlooks and short-term forecasts of high-impact weather events, thereby benefiting operational forecasting and societal activities.

在这项研究中，研究人员将从现象学的角度解决大气可预测性和预测技能的问题。 可预测性将根据操作全球数值天气预测模型的能力进行分析和解释，以预测高影响力天气系统的演变，这些嵌入这些系统的大规模流以及与选定天气系统的演变结合发生的大规模流动系统之间的过渡。 在从高分辨率集合预测中获取的样本中，将诊断出两种相互作用的案例研究：热带 - 肠道相互作用和北极 - 外界相互作用。 特别是，这项研究将解决整体预测系统中合奏成员不同演变的物理方面。 两名研究生将参与该项目。 这项研究的结果预计将转化为改进的长期前景和对高影响天气事件的短期预测，从而使运营预测和社会活动受益。