BE/CNH: Global Effects of Human and Terrestrial Interactions

BE/CNH：人类与陆地相互作用的全球影响

• 批准号: 0410344
• 负责人: John Reilly
• 金额: $ 40万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-15 至 2009-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0410344&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Global; Effects; Human; Terrestrial

As moderated by climate and atmospheric composition, the global-scale interactions of human systems and terrestrial systems are complex. Energy use, agricultural practices, and demographics are entwined with the desire of people to improve their well-being and to manage economic growth and its effects through well-meaning but sometimes misdirected policies. The goal of this interdisciplinary research project is to evaluate fundamental interactions between human and terrestrial systems through agriculture and land use, both of which are impacted by forces that are global in nature and moderated by climate and atmospheric composition. The approach that will be used to model these interactions entails use of complex but separate models of human activity, the atmosphere and ocean, terrestrial systems, and sector-by-sector models of economic and human effects. The researchers plan to develop the dynamic linkages needed between a complex global model of the economy and a complex model of terrestrial systems to evaluate these costs and potential feedbacks of changes in atmospheric composition and climate. The proposed work is to link the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM) to dynamically simulate changes in crop productivity driven by environmental change and the economic consequences and changes in land use driven by changes in trade in agriculture and the price of agricultural goods. The work will take advantage of existing capabilities of the two models with some additional improvements needed to make the linkages between them. Principally, this involves further disaggregating the agricultural sector of EPPA and linking the economic data to a supplemental data set on physical land use being developed at the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) at Purdue University. The project also will involve the development of a mosaic approach in the TEM to represent the regions and land uses represented in EPPA. These developments will allow simulation studies of the dynamic linkages among terrestrial systems, land use, the economy, international trade, and economic policy as affected by such changes in climate and atmospheric composition as increasing levels of carbon dioxide and tropospheric ozone.This project will constitute a first attempt to study complex interactions between terrestrial systems and the economy in a fully coupled model at the global scale. Project results will help to inform policies designed to mitigate different environmental and economic problems, showing where policies may complement one another and where they may be in conflict. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2004 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.

正如气候和大气组成的调节，人类系统和陆地系统的全球尺度相互作用很复杂。 能源使用，农业实践和人口统计与人们的愿望联系在一起，以改善自己的福祉，通过善意但有时是误导的政策来管理经济增长及其影响。 这个跨学科研究项目的目的是通过农业和土地使用来评估人与陆地系统之间的基本相互作用，这两者都受到本质上全球性并受到气候和大气组成调节的力量的影响。 用于建模这些相互作用的方法需要使用复杂但单独的人类活动模型，大气和海洋，陆地系统以及经济和人类效应的部门模型。 研究人员计划在复杂的全球经济模型与陆地系统的复杂模型之间建立动态联系，以评估这些成本以及大气组成和气候变化的潜在反馈。 拟议的工作是将MIT排放预测和政策分析（EPPA）模型以及陆地生态系统模型（TEM）联系起来，以动态模拟由环境变化驱动的作物生产率的变化以及由农业贸易变化和农业价格变化驱动的土地使用和农业价格的变化。 这项工作将利用两种模型的现有功能，并需要一些其他改进来建立它们之间的联系。 主要是，这涉及进一步分解EPPA的农业部门，并将经济数据与普渡大学全球贸易分析项目（GTAP）开发的有关物理土地使用的补充数据联系起来。 该项目还将涉及在TEM中开发镶嵌方法，以代表EPPA中代表的地区和土地用途。 这些发展将允许对陆地系统，土地利用，经济，国际贸易和经济政策之间的动态联系进行模拟研究，因为这种变化在气候和大气组成的变化中，二氧化碳和对流层臭氧的水平不断提高。该项目将构成在全球范围内的陆地系统与经济之间的复杂交互的首次尝试。 项目结果将有助于告知旨在减轻不同环境和经济问题的政策，以表明政策可以彼此补充以及它们可能发生冲突的地方。 该项目得到了2004财年2004财年在环境中的特殊竞争，重点是耦合自然和人类系统的动态。