Collabortive Research: Understanding, Improving and Combining Subjective Judgements

协作研究：理解、改进和结合主观判断

• 批准号: 9632448
• 负责人: David Budescu
• 金额: $ 20.38万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1996
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1996-08-15 至 2000-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9632448&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collabortive; Research; Understanding; Improving; Combining; Collabortive; Research; Understanding; Improving; Combining

9632448 BUDESCU Many decisions under uncertainty depend on expert judgments, because suitable statistical information is lacking. Examples include military and international policy contexts, business forecasting, medical diagnosis, and earthquake prediction. Experts do not always agree with each other, nor do they always express themselves in ways that best reflect their underlying opinions. This research will develop new and improved procedures for eliciting and combining their judgments to yield the most accurate and diagnostic conclusions. The project will investigate factors that affect human judgment under conditions of incomplete knowledge. The research also will develop new analytic procedures for such judgments, which take into account the sources and nature of the random error components that are normally present. One line of the project will ask why, if people are generally truly overconfident, they appear systematically underconfident given specific procedures and methods of analysis. A second line will explore why, at least for some judgment tasks, the way in which people think about uncertain information depends on the type of response they are required to give. A third line will investigate how people learn to make probability estimates and how feedback affects those estimates. The goal of all three lines of research is to develop a cognitive model of human information processing under uncertainty that applies to a broad range of situations, and can be expressed mathematically. One application of the mathematical model to be developed is to serve as a basis for combining multiple subjective estimates. A fourth line of work will pursue this goal. This approach is novel, as no other approach to the issue of combining judgments has depended on a model of the individual judge. ***

9632448 BUDESCU在不确定性下的许多决定取决于专家判断，因为缺乏适当的统计信息。 例子包括军事和国际政策环境，商业预测，医学诊断和地震预测。 专家并不总是彼此同意，也不总是以最好的方式表达自己的意见。 这项研究将开发新的和改进的程序，以提出和结合其判断，以得出最准确和最准确的结论。 该项目将调查在不完整的知识条件下影响人类判断的因素。 该研究还将为此类判断制定新的分析程序，这些程序考虑了通常存在的随机错误组件的来源和性质。 该项目的一条线会问为什么，如果人们通常真正过度自信，则在特定的程序和分析方法下，他们会系统地自信。 第二行将探讨为什么至少对于某些判断任务，人们考虑不确定信息的方式取决于他们需要给出的响应类型。 第三行将调查人们如何学会进行概率估计以及反馈如何影响这些估计。 这三种研究行的目的是在不确定性下开发人类信息处理的认知模型，该模型适用于广泛的情况，并且可以数学上表达。 要开发的数学模型的一种应用是作为组合多个主观估计的基础。 第四次工作将追求这一目标。 这种方法是新颖的，因为结合判断的问题没有其他方法取决于个人法官的模型。 ***