Collabortive Research: Understanding, Improving and Combining Subjective Judgements

协作研究：理解、改进和结合主观判断

• 批准号: 9632448
• 负责人: David Budescu
• 金额: $ 20.38万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1996
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1996-08-15 至 2000-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9632448&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collabortive; Research; Understanding; Improving; Combining

9632448 BUDESCU Many decisions under uncertainty depend on expert judgments, because suitable statistical information is lacking. Examples include military and international policy contexts, business forecasting, medical diagnosis, and earthquake prediction. Experts do not always agree with each other, nor do they always express themselves in ways that best reflect their underlying opinions. This research will develop new and improved procedures for eliciting and combining their judgments to yield the most accurate and diagnostic conclusions. The project will investigate factors that affect human judgment under conditions of incomplete knowledge. The research also will develop new analytic procedures for such judgments, which take into account the sources and nature of the random error components that are normally present. One line of the project will ask why, if people are generally truly overconfident, they appear systematically underconfident given specific procedures and methods of analysis. A second line will explore why, at least for some judgment tasks, the way in which people think about uncertain information depends on the type of response they are required to give. A third line will investigate how people learn to make probability estimates and how feedback affects those estimates. The goal of all three lines of research is to develop a cognitive model of human information processing under uncertainty that applies to a broad range of situations, and can be expressed mathematically. One application of the mathematical model to be developed is to serve as a basis for combining multiple subjective estimates. A fourth line of work will pursue this goal. This approach is novel, as no other approach to the issue of combining judgments has depended on a model of the individual judge. ***

9632448 BUDESCU 由于缺乏合适的统计信息，许多不确定性下的决策取决于专家判断。 示例包括军事和国际政策背景、商业预测、医疗诊断和地震预测。 专家们并不总是意见一致，也不总是以最能反映其基本观点的方式表达自己的观点。 这项研究将开发新的和改进的程序来引发和结合他们的判断，以得出最准确的诊断结论。 该项目将调查在知识不完整的情况下影响人类判断的因素。 该研究还将为此类判断开发新的分析程序，其中考虑到通常存在的随机误差成分的来源和性质。 该项目的其中一行会问，如果人们普遍确实过度自信，为什么在考虑到特定的程序和分析方法的情况下，他们却显得系统性地缺乏自信。 第二行将探讨为什么，至少对于某些判断任务，人们思考不确定信息的方式取决于他们需要给出的响应类型。 第三行将研究人们如何学习进行概率估计以及反馈如何影响这些估计。 所有三个研究领域的目标都是开发一种在不确定性下人类信息处理的认知模型，该模型适用于广泛的情况，并且可以用数学表达。 待开发的数学模型的一种应用是作为组合多个主观估计的基础。 第四条工作线将追求这一目标。 这种方法是新颖的，因为没有其他方法可以解决合并判断问题依赖于单个法官的模型。 ***