Collaborative Research: Basic and Applied Research Leading to a Linguistic Probability Translator (LPT)

合作研究：基础和应用研究导致语言概率翻译器（LPT）

• 批准号: 9975360
• 负责人: David Budescu
• 金额: $ 18万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1999-09-15 至 2003-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9975360&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Basic; Applied; Leading

This research aims to develop a Linguistic Probability Translator (LPT), initially as a useful research tool and subsequently for use as a decision aid within a communication community (defined as a collection of providers and receivers of risks estimates or forecasts). The LPT will improve the communication of subjective judgments and forecasts from experts to decision makers (DMs), and therefore also improve the resulting decisions. When fully realized, LPT will use quantitative methods based on empirical research to translate from one or many experts' individualized lexicons of uncertainty to a DM's individualized lexicon in a manner that best preserves the intended numerical and non-numerical meanings of the communication. If required, the LPT will translate the phrases into numerical probabilities or probability intervals, or from a numerical forecast into an appropriate phrase in a DM's lexicon. If there are multiple forecasts, LPT could translate each one into the DM's best phrase, or aggregate them and select a single best expression.The creation of LPT will require basic and applied research, as well as software development. The basic research will focus on issues of measurement and human information processing regarding the formation and communication of uncertain judgements. The software development will focus on the actual construction of LPT, and the applied work will examine the effectiveness and quality of the system. Overall, this research will advance basic theory regarding the measurement and communication of opinion, and will result in a computerized decision aid to improve decision making in the field.

本研究旨在开发语言概率翻译器 (LPT)，最初作为有用的研究工具，随后用作通信社区（定义为风险估计或预测的提供者和接收者的集合）内的决策辅助工具。 LPT 将改善专家与决策者 (DM) 之间主观判断和预测的沟通，从而改善最终决策。 当完全实现时，LPT将使用基于实证研究的定量方法，以最好地保留通信的预期数字和非数字含义的方式，将一个或多个专家的个性化不确定性词汇转换为DM的个性化词汇。 如果需要，LPT 会将短语转换为数字概率或概率区间，或者将数字预测转换为 DM 词典中的适当短语。 如果有多个预测，LPT 可以将每个预测翻译成 DM 的最佳短语，或者将它们聚合并选择一个最佳表达。LPT 的创建需要基础和应用研究，以及软件开发。 基础研究将集中于有关不确定判断的形成和交流的测量和人类信息处理问题。 软件开发将围绕LPT的实际建设进行，应用工作将检验系统的有效性和质量。 总体而言，这项研究将推进有关意见测量和沟通的基础理论，并将产生计算机化决策辅助工具，以改善该领域的决策。