Interpreting Paleoclimate when Continental Positions are Uncertain: the Effects of Sampling, Modeling and Reconstructing

当大陆位置不确定时解释古气候：采样、建模和重建的影响

• 批准号: 9627771
• 负责人: Judith Parrish
• 金额: $ 7.76万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1996
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1996-07-15 至 1999-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9627771&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Interpreting; Paleoclimate; when; Continental; Positions

Parrish 9627771 Paleogeographers and paleoclimatologists have tended to have very different agendas in studying paleoclimates, and their differing approaches and interests have led to a circularity in paleoclimatic studies that the proposed project is intended to address. The problem is greatest in studies of climates of the Paleozoic Era, when continental positions are likely to be poorly known. Paleoclimatologists have used available paleogeographic reconstructions as if they were independent of paleoclimatic data, but, in fact, some continental positions are determined at least partly from paleoclimatic data. The purpose of the proposed research is to: (1) document and evaluate the problems that arise from using paleoclimatic data to position continents, including such problems as non-uniquenessof positioning and the use of probability curves based on zonal climates for positioning continents that were likely to have had non-zonal climates: (2) establish more rigorous sampling procedures for the use of paleoclimatic data in both paleogeographic and paleoclimatic reconstruction. To address the problem of sampling, which refers not to how the data are collected but, rather, how they are compiled for use in a spatial fromat, we will develop a new grid system more appropriate for gridding data on a sphere that the latitude-longitude grid, which suffers from uneven grid-cell dimensions. We will then develop procedures for reporting the distribution of paleoclimatic indicators. This will permit evaluation of the robustness of the various assumptions that are made in this type of work. Finally, we will apply the developed methods to a persistent problem in Paleozoic paleogeography, that is, the positions of Gondwana in the Late Devonian. One possible outcome is that we will be able to eliminate one of the proposed positions, based on objectives evaluations of the data. A more likely outcome is that we will show where new data must be collected and which underlying assumptions must be examined to resolve the conflict. The broader implications of this project will be to enforce much more rigor into paleogeographic reconstructions, demonstrate the error introduced by circularity in using for paleoclimatic modeling paleogeographic reconstructions that are based at least in part on paleoclimatic indicators, and suggest procedures that might overcome the basic conflict between the needs of paleogeographers and those of paleoclimatologists.

帕里什（Parrish）9627771古地理学家和古气候学家在研究古气候方面倾向于具有截然不同的议程，而他们的不同方法和兴趣导致了古气候研究的循环，该项目旨在解决该项目。 在对古生代时代气候的研究中，当大陆位置可能鲜为人知的情况下，问题是最大的。古气候学家已经使用了可用的古地理重建，就好像它们独立于古气候数据一样，但实际上，某些大陆位置至少部分由古气候数据确定。 拟议的研究的目的是：（1）文件并评估从使用古气候数据到位置大陆的问题，包括定位的非唯一性和基于差异范围的概率曲线诸如划定范围的大陆的使用概率曲线的使用，这些大陆可能具有非区域的顾问：（2）对更古老的采样过程进行更古老的采样型和古老的多层次范围。 为了解决采样问题，该问题不是指数据收集的方式，而是指它们在空间中使用的方式，我们将开发一个更适合于在纬度长度网格上网格数据的新网格系统，该系统来自较低的网格网格尺寸不平均的网格尺寸。 然后，我们将开发报告古气候指标分布的程序。 这将允许评估此类工作中各种假设的鲁棒性。 最后，我们将将开发的方法应用于古生代古地理学的持续问题，即冈瓦纳在晚期泥盆纪的位置。 一个可能的结果是，基于数据的目标评估，我们将能够消除提出的职位之一。 一个更可能的结果是，我们将展示必须收集新数据以及必须检查哪些基本假设以解决冲突。 该项目的广泛含义将是对古地理重建进行更严格的严格性，证明了循环性在用于古气候建模的古地理重建中所引起的错误，这些错误至少部分基于古气候指标，并建议可以克服古地理学家和古地学的基本冲突之间的过程。