Public Earthquake Risk Perception and Response to Risk Communications

公众地震风险认知和风险沟通应对

• 批准号: 8814690
• 负责人: Dennis Mileti
• 金额: $ 14.59万
• 依托单位: Colorado State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1988
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1988-09-15 至 1991-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8814690&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Public; Earthquake; Risk; Perception; Response

The communication of earthquake hazard and risk information to increase public hazard awareness and preparedness and mitigation activities is an integral part of the nation's effort to reduce earthquake losses. A gap exists, unfortunately, between efforts to inform the public about risk and knowledge based on scientific evidence about how this might most effectively be accomplished. Few empirical studies have ever been performed on the link between risk education/communication to the public and public risk perception and/or behavior, and the conclusions which can be drawn are, at best, unclear. This research is a comprehensive study of public response (perceptual and behavioral) to risk information in a multi-county area in California in response to public education efforts and risk communications there concerning the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction. Research will be performed in three study communities. Mail questionnaires will collect relevant data on 1200 households. The impact of earthquake experience and distance to risk will be assessed through the sampling design. The effect of risk communication factors on perceived risk and behavior will be assessed through statistical analysis. Hypotheses tested in this research will be based on a synthesis of findings that stem from public risk education research, warnings research and communications research. The Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment has led to risk communications to citizens in some six central California counties. It is the first scientifically credible prediction for a quake in the U. S. with specified time, place, magnitude and probability that has been approved by national and state prediction councils. This provides an opportunity to study public risk communication/education effects comprehensively.

地震危害和风险信息的沟通以提高公共危害意识，准备和缓解活动是该国减少地震损失的努力的组成部分。 不幸的是，基于科学证据向公众告知公众有关如何最有效实现的风险和知识的努力之间存在差距。 关于风险教育/沟通与公共风险和/或行为之间的联系，几乎没有进行实证研究，而可以得出的结论充其量是不清楚的。 这项研究是对在加利福尼亚州多县地区风险信息的公共反应（感知和行为）的全面研究，以应对公共教育工作和有关帕克菲尔德地震预测的风险通信。 研究将在三个研究社区进行。 邮件问卷将收集1200个家庭的相关数据。 地震经验和风险距离的影响将通过抽样设计评估。 风险交流因素对感知风险和行为的影响将通过统计分析评估。 在这项研究中检验的假设将基于对公共风险教育研究，警告研究和通信研究的发现的综合。 帕克菲尔德地震的预测实验导致了大约六个加州中部县的公民的风险通信。 这是美国地震的第一个科学可靠的预测，其特定时间，地点，幅度和概率已获得国家和州预测委员会的批准。 这为全面研究公共风险沟通/教育效果提供了机会。