Applications of Statistics to Modeling the Earth's Climate System

PREFACE NCAR's Statistics Project held a Colloquium \Applications of Statistics to Modeling the Earth's Climate System" from 6 July through 19 July 1994. The Statistics Project is sponsored by the Division of Mathematical Sciences of the National Science Foundation (DMS-9312686). Its goal is to encourage the use of modern statistical techniques in the geophysical sciences. NCAR participants in the program are Principal Investigators Besides encouraging interactions between scientists and statisticians at NCAR, an important mission of the project is to facilitate an exchange of ideas and to interest new researchers in problems involving statistics and modeling and analysis of the climate system. Twenty-seven graduate students and 5 recent Ph.D. recipients who expressed an interest in applying statistics to the geophysical sciences received nancial support to attend the Colloquium. There were tutorials on climate, objective analysis, scaling, and spatial ARMA (autoregressive moving average) processes. In addition, there were more specialized lectures on a wide variety of statistical problems in atmospheric and ocean sciences. There were 19 distinguished visiting scientists speaking at the colloquium, along with nine NCAR scientists. The participating students were assigned to take notes of the colloquium lectures. These notes, which are contained in this volume, were edited to various degrees by the lecturers and the colloquium coordinators. They are not intended to cover the lectures comprehensively, but it is hoped that they and the listed references will provide good starting points for study of the topics. Besides the lectures summarized in these notes, there were presentations by the following NCAR researchers: Dennis Shea on climate data (Shea, D. 1990: Statistical comparison of spatial elds in model validation , perturbation, and predictability experiments. 851-865). Finally, Tim Hoar of NCAR prepared and supervised a \hands on" working session designed to familiarize students with accessing atmospheric and oceanographic data via Internet. We would like to take advantage of the opportunity aaorded by the publication of these notes to thank the students and lecturers who made the colloquium successful and Dennis Shea for his reading and constructive comments on the entire document. This workshop is an experiment in cross-disciplinary communication between atmospheric and ocean scientists, whom I will refer to simply as \scientists" (or \geophysicists"), and statistical scientists to whom I will refer to as \statisticians". Coming together as we have here presents a rare opportunity for stretching our minds to explore concepts that are new to us and to expand our …

前言 美国国家大气研究中心（NCAR）的统计学项目于1994年7月6日至19日举办了一场学术研讨会，主题为“统计学在地球气候系统建模中的应用”。该统计学项目由美国国家科学基金会数学科学部赞助（项目编号：DMS - 9312686）。其目标是鼓励在地球物理科学中使用现代统计技术。该项目在NCAR的参与者为首席研究员。除了鼓励NCAR的科学家和统计学家之间的互动外，该项目的一个重要任务是促进思想交流，并使新的研究人员对涉及气候系统的统计、建模和分析问题感兴趣。27名研究生和5名近期获得博士学位且表示有兴趣将统计学应用于地球物理科学的人员获得了资金支持以参加此次研讨会。会上有关于气候、客观分析、尺度缩放以及空间自回归移动平均（ARMA）过程的辅导课程。此外，还有关于大气和海洋科学中各种统计问题的更专业的讲座。有19位杰出的客座科学家以及9位NCAR的科学家在研讨会上发言。参与的学生被安排记录研讨会的讲座内容。这些记录包含在本册中，由授课教师和研讨会协调员进行了不同程度的编辑。它们并非旨在全面涵盖讲座内容，但希望它们以及列出的参考文献能为相关主题的研究提供良好的起点。除了这些记录中总结的讲座外，还有以下NCAR研究人员的报告：丹尼斯·谢伊（Dennis Shea）关于气候数据的报告（谢伊，D. 1990：模型验证、扰动和可预测性实验中空间场的统计比较，第851 - 865页）。最后，NCAR的蒂姆·霍尔（Tim Hoar）准备并指导了一个“实践”工作环节，旨在使学生熟悉通过互联网获取大气和海洋数据。我们想借此笔记出版的机会，感谢使研讨会取得成功的学生和授课教师，以及丹尼斯·谢伊对整个文件的审阅和建设性意见。本次研讨会是大气和海洋科学家（我将简称为“科学家”或“地球物理学家”）与统计科学家（我将简称为“统计学家”）之间跨学科交流的一次尝试。像我们在这里所做的相聚为我们拓展思维、探索对我们来说全新的概念以及扩展我们的……提供了一个难得的机会。