双碳目标下我国新型电力系统的构建与演变研究

Constructing a new type of power system is crucial for achieving the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and the exploration of the construction path and its evolution of the new type of power system is of top priority. Starting from the interconnection pattern of China's power system, this article focuses on the systematic problems and challenges such as supply security, balance adjustment, and power supply cost faced in constructing a new type of power system. It adopts a wide-area power system source-grid-storage collaborative planning method that takes into account multiple flexibility constraints and is based on time-series simulation. With the goal of minimizing the total system cost, while considering the constraints of the planable capacity of the source-grid-storage, the proportion of new energy power generation, and the time-series operating characteristics of various source-grid-storage equipment, combined with existing research and planning, it systematically analyzes the installed capacities of wind power, photovoltaic new energy, and new energy storage in China's seven major regional interconnected power systems in 2025, 2030, 2050, and 2060. On this basis, it analyzes the technical and economic indicators such as the installed capacity and proportion of new energy in the national interconnected system in different years, the power generation and proportion of new energy, the installed capacity and proportion of energy storage in different time scales, the utilization rate of new energy, the power supply cost, the proportion of synchronous machine output, and carbon emissions, and summarizes its development and evolution trends, providing technical and decision-making references for constructing a new type of power system and strongly supporting China's strategic goals of achieving carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.

构建新型电力系统,对于实现碳达峰、碳中和目标至关重要,而对新型电力系统构建路径及其演变的探索则是重中之重。该文从我国电力系统的互联格局出发,聚焦构建新型电力系统面临的供应安全、平衡调节、供电成本等系统性问题和挑战,采用计及多种灵活性约束和基于时序模拟的广域电力系统源-网-储协同规划方法,以系统总成本最低为目标,兼顾源-网-储可规划容量、新能源发电量占比及源-网-储各种设备时序运行特性等条件约束,结合已有研究规划,系统性分析了2025、2030、2050及2060年中国7大区域互联电力系统风电、光伏新能源和新型储能装机容量,并在此基础上,分析了不同水平年全国互联系统新能源装机及占比、新能源发电量及占比、不同时间尺度储能装机及占比、新能源利用率、供电成本、同步机出力占比和碳排放等技术经济指标,并总结了其发展演变趋势,为构建新型电力系统提供技术和决策参考,有力支撑了我国实现2030年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和的战略目标。